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Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 18 March 2011, at 8:04 a.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 3/16/11 (Stick)

Number 1

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 150 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 138 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=a-aB-BDB-a-Bb---AbbbbbA-A-:0:0:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
to play 11

1.	XG Roller+	11/9* 3/2*(2)	eq: +0.227
	Player: Opponent: 50.34% (G:28.43% B:1.70%) 49.66% (G:12.81% B:0.80%)
2.	XG Roller+	24/22 11/9*	eq: +0.220 (-0.008)
	Player: Opponent: 52.08% (G:24.42% B:1.52%) 47.92% (G:12.55% B:0.66%)
3.	XG Roller+	24/22 3/2*(2)	eq: +0.134 (-0.094)
	Player: Opponent: 49.64% (G:24.48% B:1.25%) 50.36% (G:12.37% B:0.55%)
4.	XG Roller+	6/4(2)	eq: +0.099 (-0.128)
	Player: Opponent: 50.19% (G:24.04% B:1.41%) 49.81% (G:12.81% B:0.75%)

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Number 2

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 138 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 123 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-ABBBaCb-----C-b-bbd-b-AA-:1:-1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
to play 21

1.	Rollout1	24/22 23/22	eq: -0.424
	Player: Opponent: 41.68% (G:11.73% B:0.17%) 58.32% (G:12.62% B:0.49%) Conf: ± 0.014 (-0.438...-0.410) Duration: 7 minutes 25 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/22 6/5*	eq: -0.427 (-0.003)
	Player: Opponent: 41.50% (G:17.29% B:0.34%) 58.50% (G:18.49% B:1.18%) Conf: ± 0.016 (-0.443...-0.411) Duration: 7 minutes 56 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/11 6/5*	eq: -0.442 (-0.018)
	Player: Opponent: 40.84% (G:19.33% B:0.27%) 59.16% (G:21.59% B:2.00%) Conf: ± 0.017 (-0.459...-0.425) Duration: 7 minutes 03 seconds
4.	Rollout1	6/5* 5/3	eq: -0.451 (-0.027)
	Player: Opponent: 40.65% (G:15.98% B:0.24%) 59.35% (G:17.79% B:0.95%) Conf: ± 0.016 (-0.467...-0.435) Duration: 8 minutes 29 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

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Number 3

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 83 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 81 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-BCBBBAA----b----aBcbbcb--:1:-1:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
to play 51

1.	Rollout1	18/13 18/17*	eq: +0.086
	Player: Opponent: 62.67% (G:10.41% B:0.04%) 37.33% (G:20.14% B:2.54%) Conf: ± 0.006 (+0.080...+0.092) Duration: 57.5 seconds
2.	Rollout1	18/17* 6/1	eq: +0.064 (-0.022)
	Player: Opponent: 60.27% (G:6.16% B:0.02%) 39.73% (G:11.89% B:0.58%) Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.057...+0.071) Duration: 1 minute 06 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

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Number 4

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 24 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 32 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=--------------A---A-b-bcb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	69.29% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	30.71% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	69.37% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	30.63% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	+0.386
Redouble:	+0.775
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0.615 (-0.005)
Redouble/Take:	+0.621
Redouble/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.379)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble:	± 0.002 (+0.613...+0.618)
Confidence Redouble:	± 0.003 (+0.617...+0.624)
Double Decision confidence:	99.6%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 4.5 seconds

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Number 5

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 123 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 182 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-----BBAC---eC---c-cbBb-B-:1:1:1:33:0:0:3:0:10
to play 33

1.	Rollout1	13/4 7/4	eq: -0.286
	Player: Opponent: 35.67% (G:5.83% B:0.22%) 64.33% (G:19.41% B:1.56%) Conf: ± 0.014 (-0.300...-0.272) Duration: 11 minutes 19 seconds
2.	Rollout1	21/18(2) 13/10 7/4	eq: -0.291 (-0.005)
	Player: Opponent: 35.62% (G:5.73% B:0.23%) 64.38% (G:19.46% B:1.31%) Conf: ± 0.014 (-0.305...-0.277) Duration: 12 minutes 50 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Messages In This Thread

• Daily Quiz 3/16/11
  Stick -- Wednesday, 16 March 2011, at 8:26 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/16/11
    misja -- Wednesday, 16 March 2011, at 9:03 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/16/11
    Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 16 March 2011, at 9:59 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/16/11
    Ian Shaw -- Wednesday, 16 March 2011, at 2:45 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/16/11
    Lucas Bauer -- Wednesday, 16 March 2011, at 4:29 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/16/11
    Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 16 March 2011, at 5:53 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/16/11
    LowRayTeeng -- Wednesday, 16 March 2011, at 6:24 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/16/11
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 16 March 2011, at 6:50 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/16/11
    RolldUpTrips -- Thursday, 17 March 2011, at 3:03 a.m.
  • Rollouts
    Stick -- Friday, 18 March 2011, at 8:04 a.m.
    • Number 5, more candidates -- Rollouts
      Chuck Bower -- Friday, 18 March 2011, at 8:48 p.m.
      • Number 5, more candidates -- Rollouts
        Stick -- Friday, 18 March 2011, at 9:02 p.m.
        • Number 5, more candidates -- Rollouts
          Seth -- Monday, 21 March 2011, at 3:22 a.m.