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Redouble to 8?

Posted By: Chris
Date: Saturday, 19 March 2011, at 3:09 a.m.

In Response To: Redouble to 8? (Chris)

I will shamelessly admit that I blundered by redoubling this position as you might have guessed already.

I just couldn't resist sending back the cube, seriously underestimating white's attacking potential when I miss or when he enters quickly. Maybe I'm weird, but I do enjoy shipping an 8-cube in a money session. Especially when my opp's original redouble was dangerously close to a beaver.

Counting the rolls is obviously important like Casper and Neil pointed out, but there are also other features. I think it's best that I post a variant where the decision is much closer.

My approach was somewhat different than what Stick suggested. I simply moved white's outfield point one step back. This doesn't alter the number of dancing rolls and your hitting numbers but it does tone down white's blitzing/priming potential. Now there are also fewer builders for his 3point. It's still NRD/T, but it's now much closer. Tidy up blue's outfield checkers by making his mid (less potential trouble for blue later on), and now it's an error NOT to redouble.

Finally the original position is a correct initial double according to xg, even without the jacoby rule.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 103
Money session
pip: 90
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBDBaB------AAc-aacc--baA:2:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
  Player Winning Chances: 59.48% (G: 30.79% B: 1.04%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 40.52% (G: 12.03% B: 0.46%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 59.98% (G: 30.26% B: 0.96%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 40.02% (G: 11.56% B: 0.46%)
 
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.383
Redouble:+0.783
 
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.475
Redouble/Take:+0.453 (-0.022)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.525)
 
Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take
 
Rollout details
4521 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
 
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.005 (+0.470...+0.480)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.012 (+0.442...+0.465)
 
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
 
Duration: 59 minutes 10 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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