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Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 19 March 2011, at 11:33 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 3/18/11 (Stick)

Number 1
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 154
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 153
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-a-B-aC-C-B-dC---bbcb-A-A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10
to play 64

1.Rollout122/16 13/9eq: -0.359
Player:
Opponent:		 41.45% (G:12.39% B:0.46%)
58.55% (G:18.81% B:1.08%)		Conf: ± 0.025 (-0.384...-0.334)
Duration: 9 minutes 05 seconds
2.Rollout18/2 6/2eq: -0.417 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:		 39.73% (G:11.75% B:0.43%)
60.27% (G:17.29% B:0.99%)		Conf: ± 0.025 (-0.442...-0.392)
Duration: 8 minutes 08 seconds
3.Rollout210/4 8/4eq: -0.480 (-0.120)
Player:
Opponent:		 37.64% (G:10.98% B:0.58%)
62.36% (G:16.21% B:0.84%)		Conf: ± 0.040 (-0.520...-0.440)
Duration: 2 minutes 55 seconds
1 972 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

2 324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Number 2
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 155
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 156
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-a--a-E-C---dF---c-db---A-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
to play 32

1.XG Roller+6/4* 4/1* eq: -0.328
Player:
Opponent:		 43.10% (G:8.70% B:0.28%)
56.90% (G:17.13% B:0.60%)
2.XG Roller+13/8eq: -0.330 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		 43.03% (G:7.40% B:0.25%)
56.97% (G:16.15% B:0.39%)
3.XG Roller+13/10 6/4* eq: -0.393 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:		 41.97% (G:9.47% B:0.39%)
58.03% (G:19.17% B:1.04%)

Number 3
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 181
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 145
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-bba-BCBB-A-bC---aAcAbaa--:1:-1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
to play 21

1.XG Roller+18/17* 17/15eq: +0.896
Player:
Opponent:		 77.48% (G:39.97% B:5.74%)
22.52% (G:3.25% B:0.19%)
2.XG Roller+18/17* 6/4eq: +0.894 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		 77.62% (G:40.40% B:5.99%)
22.38% (G:4.25% B:0.33%)
3.XG Roller+18/17* 13/11eq: +0.889 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		 76.69% (G:40.49% B:6.68%)
23.31% (G:3.49% B:0.23%)
4.XG Roller+20/17* eq: +0.853 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:		 76.12% (G:38.93% B:6.21%)
23.88% (G:3.78% B:0.21%)
5.XG Roller+13/10eq: +0.826 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:		 78.80% (G:33.40% B:2.93%)
21.20% (G:3.93% B:0.17%)
6.XG Roller+18/15eq: +0.770 (-0.126)
Player:
Opponent:		 77.29% (G:31.99% B:2.89%)
22.71% (G:4.53% B:0.19%)
7.XG Roller+6/3* eq: +0.762 (-0.133)
Player:
Opponent:		 76.39% (G:33.99% B:3.85%)
23.61% (G:5.92% B:0.36%)

Number 4
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 101
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 126
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-B-BBBB-----bB---dcbBbA-b-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 76.95% (G: 9.27% B: 0.18%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.05% (G: 2.48% B: 0.05%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.52% (G: 8.15% B: 0.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.48% (G: 2.36% B: 0.06%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.539
Double:+1.217
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.946 (-0.054)
Double/Take:+1.075 (+0.075)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.935...+0.956)
Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+1.061...+1.088)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 7 minutes 52 seconds

Number 5
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 135
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 197
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=---BbBB-A-a-aB---bbbcbDAA-:1:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
to play 21

1.XG Roller+24/23 8/6eq: -0.771
Player:
Opponent:		 26.29% (G:2.46% B:0.07%)
73.71% (G:37.95% B:3.21%)
2.XG Roller+13/12* 12/10* eq: -0.788 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:		 24.65% (G:4.12% B:0.15%)
75.35% (G:37.51% B:3.21%)

Number 6
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 109
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 79
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=aBEBBaa----AAA---A-bcc-bb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 70.63% (G: 22.93% B: 0.36%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.37% (G: 6.61% B: 0.37%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.92% (G: 23.59% B: 0.38%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.08% (G: 6.49% B: 0.38%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.576
Redouble:+1.179
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.785 (-0.215)
Redouble/Take:+1.013 (+0.013)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.005 (+0.780...+0.790)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.009 (+1.004...+1.021)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 99.8%
Duration: 9 minutes 21 seconds

Number 7
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 147
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 151
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=a-B-BBBA--a-cB-Abb-db-AAA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 63.22% (G: 32.59% B: 0.97%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.78% (G: 9.70% B: 0.63%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.11% (G: 36.00% B: 0.91%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.89% (G: 9.91% B: 0.69%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.264
Double:+1.091
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.722 (-0.078)
Double/Take:+0.801
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.199)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
972 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.024 (+0.698...+0.746)
Confidence Double: ± 0.037 (+0.763...+0.838)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 11 minutes 26 seconds

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