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Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 21 March 2011, at 1:38 a.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 3/19/11 (Stick)

Number 1

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 157 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 161 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-aa-B-D-B---bEb--d-e----B-:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:10
to play 54

1.	XG Roller+	24/15	eq: +0.062
	Player: Opponent: 52.37% (G:13.74% B:0.68%) 47.63% (G:13.79% B:0.53%)
2.	XG Roller+	13/9 13/8	eq: +0.053 (-0.009)
	Player: Opponent: 50.99% (G:16.77% B:0.76%) 49.01% (G:13.80% B:0.80%)
3.	XG Roller+	13/8 6/2*	eq: +0.044 (-0.019)
	Player: Opponent: 50.83% (G:16.57% B:0.73%) 49.17% (G:14.09% B:0.92%)
4.	XG Roller+	24/20 13/8	eq: +0.030 (-0.032)
	Player: Opponent: 50.88% (G:14.47% B:0.65%) 49.12% (G:13.39% B:0.54%)
5.	XG Roller+	13/4	eq: +0.013 (-0.049)
	Player: Opponent: 49.94% (G:16.56% B:0.67%) 50.06% (G:14.19% B:0.77%)

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Number 2

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 130 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 129 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-aB-BBC-B---cB--ab-f--bAA-:1:-1:1:42:0:0:3:0:10
to play 42

1.	Rollout1	8/6 8/4	eq: +0.217
	Player: Opponent: 60.17% (G:25.14% B:0.30%) 39.83% (G:9.21% B:0.42%) Conf: ± 0.018 (+0.199...+0.235) Duration: 2 minutes 35 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/20 23/21	eq: +0.169 (-0.048)
	Player: Opponent: 60.20% (G:22.42% B:1.19%) 39.80% (G:11.50% B:0.50%) Conf: ± 0.020 (+0.149...+0.189) Duration: 3 minutes 10 seconds
3.	Rollout1	24/18	eq: +0.142 (-0.075)
	Player: Opponent: 59.75% (G:21.44% B:0.85%) 40.25% (G:11.04% B:0.39%) Conf: ± 0.016 (+0.126...+0.158) Duration: 3 minutes 06 seconds
1 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

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Number 3

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 122 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 101 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-b-CBBC-C---b---Ba-bbbbb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	73.26% (G: 17.08% B: 0.65%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	26.74% (G: 4.84% B: 0.17%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	74.33% (G: 16.51% B: 0.52%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	25.67% (G: 4.88% B: 0.18%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.465
Double:	+1.213
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.834 (-0.166)
Double/Take:	+1.036 (+0.036)
Double/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.012 (+0.823...+0.846)
Confidence Double:	± 0.019 (+1.017...+1.055)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 38 seconds

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Number 4

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 145 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 150 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=---b--E-C-B-bD---e-ea---A-:0:0:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
to play 53

1.	Rollout1	24/16	eq: +0.198
	Player: Opponent: 55.56% (G:5.77% B:0.27%) 44.44% (G:7.36% B:0.17%) Conf: ± 0.015 (+0.183...+0.213) Duration: 11 minutes 07 seconds
2.	Rollout1	10/5 8/5	eq: +0.194 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 55.51% (G:11.39% B:0.50%) 44.49% (G:11.25% B:0.39%) Conf: ± 0.017 (+0.177...+0.211) Duration: 9 minutes 38 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

---

Number 5

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 108 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 137 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=---ABBCBA----A--cccfB--A--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	75.98% (G: 11.29% B: 0.29%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	24.02% (G: 2.75% B: 0.06%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	77.29% (G: 8.97% B: 0.18%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	22.71% (G: 2.52% B: 0.08%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.520
Double:	+1.223
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.907 (-0.093)
Double/Take:	+1.075 (+0.075)
Double/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.013 (+0.894...+0.920)
Confidence Double:	± 0.023 (+1.052...+1.099)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 20 seconds

Messages In This Thread

• Daily Quiz 3/19/11
  Stick -- Sunday, 20 March 2011, at 3:19 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/19/11
    Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 20 March 2011, at 8:42 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/19/11
    misja -- Sunday, 20 March 2011, at 10:02 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/19/11
    Michael Depreli -- Sunday, 20 March 2011, at 11:54 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/19/11
    Chris -- Sunday, 20 March 2011, at 4:31 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/19/11
    Stein Kulseth -- Sunday, 20 March 2011, at 5:43 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/19/11
    Lucas Bauer -- Sunday, 20 March 2011, at 7:45 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/19/11
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 20 March 2011, at 10:57 p.m.
  • Rollouts
    Stick -- Monday, 21 March 2011, at 1:38 a.m.
    • Rollouts
      Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 21 March 2011, at 7:11 a.m.
      • Rollouts
        Michael Depreli -- Monday, 21 March 2011, at 7:27 a.m.
        • Rollouts
          garyo -- Monday, 21 March 2011, at 4:26 p.m.
          • Rollouts
            Michael Depreli -- Monday, 21 March 2011, at 6:11 p.m.
            • Rollouts
              Lucas Bauer -- Monday, 21 March 2011, at 6:39 p.m.
            • Rollouts
              Henrik Bukkjaer -- Tuesday, 22 March 2011, at 8:12 a.m.
          • Rollouts
            Stick -- Monday, 21 March 2011, at 6:13 p.m.
            • Rollouts
              Michael Depreli -- Monday, 21 March 2011, at 7:24 p.m.
              • Rollouts
                Stick -- Monday, 21 March 2011, at 8:35 p.m.
                • Rollouts
                  Henrik Bukkjaer -- Monday, 21 March 2011, at 9:40 p.m.
      • Rollouts
        Stick -- Monday, 21 March 2011, at 7:31 a.m.
        • Rollouts
          Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 21 March 2011, at 7:35 a.m.
      • Rollouts
        Stein Kulseth -- Monday, 21 March 2011, at 9:16 a.m.
        • Rollouts
          Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 21 March 2011, at 9:32 a.m.
        • Rollouts
          Fender -- Monday, 21 March 2011, at 10:32 a.m.
          • Rollouts
            Ian Shaw -- Monday, 21 March 2011, at 1:47 p.m.
          • Rollouts
            Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 22 March 2011, at 12:18 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/19/11
    Seth -- Tuesday, 22 March 2011, at 8:46 p.m.