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Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 23 March 2011, at 8:55 a.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 3/21/11 (Stick)

Number 1
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 157
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 140
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=aa-BB-C-B---cDa--cAdb-A---:1:-1:1:22:0:0:3:0:10
to play 22

1.Rollout118/14* 13/11(2)eq: +0.611
Player:
Opponent:		 70.84% (G:35.56% B:2.81%)
29.16% (G:6.28% B:0.31%)		Conf: ± 0.014 (+0.597...+0.625)
Duration: 12 minutes 30 seconds
2.Rollout118/14* 3/1*(2) eq: +0.603 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		 69.05% (G:42.58% B:1.46%)
30.95% (G:7.81% B:0.42%)		Conf: ± 0.014 (+0.589...+0.617)
Duration: 9 minutes 54 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Number 2
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 129
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 176
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=----a-D-E--abB--bb-cbCbA--:1:1:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
to play 62

1.Rollout121/15 6/4* eq: -0.497
Player:
Opponent:		 31.58% (G:5.39% B:0.23%)
68.42% (G:30.39% B:1.24%)		Conf: ± 0.015 (-0.512...-0.482)
Duration: 17 minutes 29 seconds
2.Rollout121/15 13/11* eq: -0.504 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		 31.90% (G:6.36% B:0.35%)
68.10% (G:32.58% B:1.55%)		Conf: ± 0.016 (-0.520...-0.488)
Duration: 17 minutes 36 seconds
3.Rollout213/7 13/11* eq: -0.510 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:		 29.89% (G:5.25% B:0.20%)
70.11% (G:27.25% B:1.04%)		Conf: ± 0.018 (-0.528...-0.492)
Duration: 8 minutes 27 seconds
4.Rollout221/13eq: -0.533 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:		 25.16% (G:3.20% B:0.11%)
74.84% (G:15.80% B:0.32%)		Conf: ± 0.014 (-0.547...-0.519)
Duration: 7 minutes 48 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

2 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Number 3
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 108
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 87
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-bB--BEEA--------aabcbbb--:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 77.00% (G: 5.51% B: 0.16%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.00% (G: 1.52% B: 0.01%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.54% (G: 5.54% B: 0.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.46% (G: 1.21% B: 0.01%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.581
Redouble:+1.230
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.904 (-0.096)
Redouble/Take:+1.110 (+0.110)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
756 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.011 (+0.893...+0.915)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.020 (+1.089...+1.130)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 43 seconds

Number 4
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 97
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 129
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=--BB-BCAA----AaA--fg---aB-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 56.75% (G: 18.26% B: 0.52%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 43.25% (G: 5.11% B: 0.28%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 57.93% (G: 20.75% B: 0.49%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.07% (G: 4.86% B: 0.25%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.135
Double:+0.640
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.180 (-0.092)
Double/Take:+0.272
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.728)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
972 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.014 (+0.166...+0.194)
Confidence Double: ± 0.030 (+0.242...+0.302)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 06 seconds

Number 5
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 65
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 113
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-a-BBBCBB--------A--bcahA-:2:-1:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
to play 62

1.Rollout124/22* 17/11eq: +1.246
Player:
Opponent:		 94.68% (G:35.31% B:1.80%)
5.32% (G:0.30% B:0.01%)		Conf: ± 0.008 (+1.238...+1.254)
Duration: 2 minutes 36 seconds
2.Rollout124/22* 7/1* eq: +1.227 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:		 93.06% (G:38.89% B:1.41%)
6.94% (G:1.69% B:0.04%)		Conf: ± 0.010 (+1.217...+1.237)
Duration: 3 minutes 05 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Number 6
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 116
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 144
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=--BBBb-B-a-C-----bCbcbc--A:1:1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
to play 11

1.Rollout1Bar/23 7/6(2)eq: -0.517
Player:
Opponent:		 32.71% (G:6.90% B:0.28%)
67.29% (G:37.36% B:0.55%)		Conf: ± 0.014 (-0.531...-0.503)
Duration: 7 minutes 02 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/24 11/9* 9/8eq: -0.529 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		 33.24% (G:6.42% B:0.29%)
66.76% (G:37.70% B:1.16%)		Conf: ± 0.015 (-0.544...-0.514)
Duration: 8 minutes 57 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Number 7
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 140
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 121
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-bBBBBB-A---bB---bbe--bAA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 70.05% (G: 24.84% B: 1.98%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.95% (G: 7.02% B: 0.32%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.23% (G: 24.90% B: 1.97%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.77% (G: 6.77% B: 0.31%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.401
Double:+1.205
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.818 (-0.156)
Double/Take:+0.974
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.026)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.016 (+0.802...+0.834)
Confidence Double: ± 0.024 (+0.950...+0.997)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 98.6%
Duration: 9 minutes 14 seconds

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