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Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 25 March 2011, at 5:00 a.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 3/23/11 - Falafel Edition (Stick)

Number 1
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 149
7 point match
pip: 117
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-a----EbECB-b----cacba----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 72.68% (G: 15.03% B: 0.32%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.32% (G: 3.68% B: 0.13%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.91% (G: 16.98% B: 0.33%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.09% (G: 3.81% B: 0.17%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.571
Double:+1.213
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.890 (-0.110)
Double/Take:+1.002 (+0.002)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.883...+0.897)
Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+0.991...+1.013)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 62.9%
Duration: 55 minutes 49 seconds

Number 2
is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 167
7 point match
pip: 172
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-a--aaE-C---dD---cacAA--aA:0:0:1:54:0:2:0:7:10
to play 54

1.XG Roller+Bar/21 20/15eq: +0.186
Player:
Opponent:		 53.17% (G:11.21% B:0.49%)
46.83% (G:10.82% B:0.34%)
2.XG Roller+Bar/20 8/4* eq: +0.179 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		 52.22% (G:12.32% B:0.56%)
47.78% (G:10.52% B:0.35%)

Number 3
is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 119
7 point match
pip: 104
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=--aBBCC---BAbB---cbc-bb---:1:-1:1:63:0:4:0:7:10
to play 63

1.Rollout110/4 5/2* eq: +0.734
Player:
Opponent:		 72.05% (G:31.32% B:0.29%)
27.95% (G:6.79% B:0.60%)		Conf: ± 0.010 (+0.724...+0.744)
Duration: 4 minutes 24 seconds
2.Rollout111/2* eq: +0.725 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		 72.16% (G:29.34% B:0.23%)
27.84% (G:5.18% B:0.59%)		Conf: ± 0.010 (+0.715...+0.735)
Duration: 4 minutes 06 seconds
3.Rollout111/5 6/3eq: +0.676 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:		 78.04% (G:12.74% B:0.11%)
21.96% (G:2.54% B:0.25%)		Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.668...+0.684)
Duration: 3 minutes 39 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Number 4
is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 110
7 point match
pip: 144
score: 2

is Player 1
XGID=--a-BBBBB-B----Abadbc-b-AA:1:1:1:00:2:4:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 59.78% (G: 12.38% B: 0.67%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40.22% (G: 19.97% B: 1.93%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.75% (G: 12.37% B: 1.17%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.25% (G: 20.08% B: 2.18%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.203
Redouble:+0.925
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.769 (-0.156)
Redouble/Take:+0.925
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.075)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.022 (+0.747...+0.791)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.027 (+0.898...+0.952)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 31 seconds

Number 5
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 135
7 point match
pip: 124
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-bBBABC-A---aB---cbe--b-B-:0:0:-1:31:0:0:0:7:10
to play 31

1.Rollout18/5 6/5eq: +0.005
Player:
Opponent:		 51.92% (G:16.92% B:1.60%)
48.08% (G:18.45% B:1.82%)		Conf: ± 0.041 (-0.036...+0.046)
Duration: 1 minute 35 seconds
2.Rollout124/21* 8/7eq: -0.173 (-0.178)
Player:
Opponent:		 47.12% (G:15.53% B:1.99%)
52.88% (G:21.33% B:1.42%)		Conf: ± 0.033 (-0.206...-0.140)
Duration: 1 minute 53 seconds
1 432 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Number 6
is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 139
7 point match
pip: 122
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-a--bBEBB---bD---a-cabba--:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 72.90% (G: 9.31% B: 0.43%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.10% (G: 4.30% B: 0.11%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.40% (G: 9.24% B: 0.44%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.60% (G: 4.30% B: 0.12%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.514
Double:+1.074
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.914 (-0.042)
Double/Take:+0.956
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.044)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
972 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.016 (+0.898...+0.930)
Confidence Double: ± 0.021 (+0.934...+0.977)
Double Decision confidence: 99.9%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 23 seconds

Number 7
is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 79
7 point match
Crawford
pip: 90
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-B-B-DBbC----B---a-b-adbc-:0:0:-1:64:0:6:1:7:10
to play 64

1.Rollout18/2 6/2eq: -0.173
Player:
Opponent:		 42.00% (G:1.08% B:0.00%)
58.00% (G:6.93% B:0.43%)		Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.177...-0.169)
Duration: 1 minute 14 seconds
2.Rollout118/8eq: -0.209 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:		 39.74% (G:1.50% B:0.01%)
60.26% (G:2.77% B:0.08%)		Conf: ± 0.003 (-0.212...-0.206)
Duration: 1 minute 03 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

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