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Routine boring race cube..does AtS matter much here?

Posted By: Ian Shaw
Date: Friday, 25 March 2011, at 11:19 p.m.

In Response To: Routine boring race cube..does AtS matter much here? (neilkaz)

Two efficient positions, so Rule 62 applies.

For money, Black's point of last take is (53 - 5) / 7 = 6 pips. I note that if White's pip count was 54 it would be a bare take, so it must be very close. I reckon Black wins about 22 - 22.5%.

Now to consider the score, using W-H MET.

  • Black passes to 11a 6a = 25%
  • Black loses to 11a 5a = 20%
  • Black wins to 9a 7a = 39%

Black risks 5 to gain 14, so the basic takepoint = 5/19 = 26.3%.

On a recube to 4:

  • White passes to 7a 9a = 61%
  • White loses to 7a 7a = 50%
  • White wins to 3a 11a = 90%

White risks 11 to gain 29, so the basic takepoint on the recube to 4 = 11/40 = 27.5%. So Black only needs to get to 72.5%.

With perfect recube efficiency, Black could take at 72.5% * 26.3% = 18.4% mentally (actaully 19.1%).

Assuming a typical 70% cube efficiency, White's takepoint lies 7/10 of the way from 26.3 to 18.4 = 20.7%.

That's very close to my initial estimate of the winning chances, so I should look at the race a final time. White's position is superbly efficient and Blacks's is almost as good. Black may be slightly worse than is typical for these pipcounts, but by no more than 1/2 pip at worst. A pip must be worth about 3% in a 50-pip race, so I adjust Black's chances downward by 1.5% to 20.5 - 21%. Unfortunately, that neatly straddles my calculated takepoint, so the decision must be borderline. Shrugging, I'll call it a bare pass.

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