My gnubg rollout for money has the position as a narrow pass, as predicted by Trice. Interestingly, higher ply evaluations think this is a take, although the lower plies concur with the rollout.
I misjudged a few things.
Firstly, White's superior structure is only worth 1/4 pip, where I used 1/2 a pip.
Secondly, 1 pip of lead is worth 1.6% not 3% (moving Black 1 pip back from the 4 to the 5-point brings the wins down to 20.1%).
Thirdly, what should I consider the basic gwc to be when a formula tells me "borderline take"? Neil's XG $ rollout says 22.08% is takeable, and my gnubg says 21.8 is a pass. So are we looking at 21.9% as the border? Although I assume it also depends on the race length and the chance of a swing, so maybe there is no exact answer.
I'm surprised that XG gives as many as 22.08 wins. Gnubg's numbers agree with the databases 21.7%
The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0
Move number 5: Blue on roll, cube decision?
| White | 60 |
|---|---|
| |
| Blue | 53 |
Position ID: dPcBAAC7DwAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA | |
• Blue doubles
| Cube decision | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rollout cubeless equity | +0.565 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cubeful equities: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1. | Double, pass | +1.000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2. | Double, take | +1.006 | +0.006 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3. | No double | +0.856 | -0.144 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Proper cube action: | Redouble, pass | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rollout details | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7776 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 883076794 and quasi-random dice | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0-ply cubeless equity +0.566
0.783 0.000 0.000 - 0.217 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass +1.000
2. Double, take +1.001 ( +0.001)
3. No double +0.801 ( -0.199)
Proper cube action: Redouble, pass
Cube analysis
1-ply cubeless equity +0.566
0.783 0.000 0.000 - 0.217 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass +1.000
2. Double, take +1.001 ( +0.001)
3. No double +0.769 ( -0.231)
Proper cube action: Redouble, pass
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.566
0.783 0.000 0.000 - 0.217 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass +1.000
2. Double, take +1.001 ( +0.001)
3. No double +0.849 ( -0.151)
Proper cube action: Redouble, pass
Cube analysis
Cube analysis
3-ply cubeless equity +0.566
0.783 0.000 0.000 - 0.217 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.998
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.002)
3. No double +0.848 ( -0.151)
Proper cube action: Redouble, take
4-ply cubeless equity +0.566
0.783 0.000 0.000 - 0.217 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.999
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.001)
3. No double +0.852 ( -0.147)
Proper cube action: Redouble, take