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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 3/29/11
Posted By: ah_clem In Response To: Daily Quiz 3/29/11 (Stick)
Date: Tuesday, 29 March 2011, at 3:35 p.m.
1) Looks like a pretty clear double. 7 shakes close black out immediately (market losers) so the time to cube is now. With only one checker to get home, gammon chances are small, so it can't be too good.
What about the take? If black can enter right away he'll have ~ 50% chance of winning the race, but he only enters about 1/3rd of the time, and only gets a chance to enter ~80% of the time because of white's 7 closeout numbers - this gives him about a 24% chance of getting to an even race, or about 12% GWC by escaping. But escaping and running isn't the only way to win - black could still get a shot. If you peg the shot making chances at about 10% (I'm making this up as I go, BTW) that gives 22% GWC or the barest take for money play. I say drop, but it might be close, depending on how accurate my 10% figure is. D/P
2) Tim will probably chime in and tell me (again!) that I don't really understand Jacoby, but I'll double here to activate the gammons. White has a chance to send a sixth checker back, and that makes for lots of gammons. Even 5 back is pretty good odds. Black has a solid backgame and good timing so I'll say take, although I'd probably drop it over the board since I suck at backgames. D/T
3) Hitting the blot on the three seems wrong - it hurts our timing and prematurely slots the three. Abandoning the midpoint or playing to the two are similarly anti-positional. Mobility is key in a backgame, so I'll just play bar/18 expecting to get whacked.
4) Holding three points in the opponents homeboard is strong, but not if your board crunches, so leaping out to maintain mobility is mandatory. The choice becomes a)leaping from the ace, b) the double hit, or c) hit and slot the 5. I'm going to go with c - it's too early and our containment structure isn't there to hit twice; we're leaping out to maintain timing, not to send him back. Leaping from the deuce gives 5s and 6s to leap again while leaping from the ace leaves a blot where it can't directly escape. So 23/17* 6/5 for me. Did I mention that I suck at backgames?
5) Run. Run like hell. 21/11. What else is there? We don't want to abandon the midpoint or weaken our prime, and I fail to see the utility of 13/7 6/2.
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