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Potential mythbuster topic

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 29 March 2011, at 4:13 p.m.

In Response To: Potential mythbuster topic (Timothy Chow)

Another possible myth is how much more of a favorite a better player is in a longer vs. a shorter match. Most players think this difference is huge but I think they're wrong. I remember when one of the earlier bots (JF or Snowie, I forget which) came out with an upgraded version and they had the new version play the older one a long series of 3 and 13-point matches. The results were that the new version was a 52/48 fav in 3 pointers and that only increased to 54/46 in 13 pointers.

I think the reason for this small difference is that the trailer's cube leverage makes him a fav in every game. If the leader has a decent lead in a 13 pointer and owns the cube, he's got to be real careful about redoubling vs. just the opposite for the trailer. So, on average, what happens is that the trailer tends to catch up or at least reduce his deficit and you usually end up playing a short match anyway.

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