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31P-66B-51S-65-d

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 30 March 2011, at 2:58 a.m.

In Response To: 31P-66B-51S-65-d (Rory)


' ' ' '2X4X2O3X ' ' '3O

1X1X ' ' '5O2O3O ' ' '4X

31P-66B-51S-65-d143


Congratulations on your first use of Nactation here: perfect!

Interesting problem. Pointing on a blot with p (point, 7/1* 6/1) or worse P (point, 8/2* 7/2) or hitting twice with K (Kill, 8/2* 6/1*) is definitely out. Therefore, 13/7 is the 6.

At other scores, S (Split-and-down, 18/7) would be silly (too few gammons won and too many gammons lost). At this score (dmp) I think it is a worthy candidate, though I still can't bring myself to play it.

That leaves D (Down, 13/8 13/7) and N (Near, 13/7 6/1*). The midpoint is reduced in value once the bar point is made (as explained here), which makes D worthy of attention. OTOH, unstacking the 6pt seems more balanced, so I guess I'll go with N.

Note that either N or D may leave the aji of a contact-disengaging move next turn with 52 53 54 (leaving only a single shot) that is safer than disengaging with S now.

Sir Peever has researched a lot of third and fourth roll 65's, though if he has a rollout for this one it would no doubt be for money.

Nack

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