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Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 30 March 2011, at 3:30 a.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 3/26/11 (Stick)

Number 1

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 136 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 135 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=aa--BCBABB---Aa--cbdba-B--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	66.47% (G: 35.79% B: 3.13%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33.53% (G: 8.69% B: 0.56%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	66.55% (G: 38.74% B: 4.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33.45% (G: 8.47% B: 0.54%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.329
Double:	+1.338
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.792 (-0.208)
Double/Take:	+1.067 (+0.067)
Double/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.018 (+0.773...+0.810)
Confidence Double:	± 0.031 (+1.036...+1.099)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 9 minutes 52 seconds

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Number 2

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 155 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 160 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-aA---D-Ca--dE--ac-e-A--A-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
to play 31

1.	XG Roller+	24/21 2/1*	eq: -0.099
	Player: Opponent: 46.99% (G:10.96% B:0.36%) 53.01% (G:11.08% B:0.44%)
2.	XG Roller+	8/5 6/5	eq: -0.103 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 47.61% (G:12.96% B:0.51%) 52.39% (G:14.22% B:0.71%)
3.	XG Roller+	13/9*	eq: -0.112 (-0.013)
	Player: Opponent: 47.86% (G:13.06% B:0.67%) 52.14% (G:15.79% B:0.97%)

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Number 3

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 117 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 143 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=---aBBC-B--AAB-bbb-dcB-a--:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10
to play 43

1.	Rollout1	13/9 6/3*	eq: +0.383
	Player: Opponent: 60.52% (G:15.07% B:0.67%) 39.48% (G:14.43% B:0.89%) Conf: ± 0.022 (+0.361...+0.405) Duration: 6 minutes 58 seconds
2.	Rollout1	11/7 6/3*	eq: +0.363 (-0.020)
	Player: Opponent: 60.12% (G:15.14% B:0.57%) 39.88% (G:12.88% B:0.55%) Conf: ± 0.022 (+0.341...+0.385) Duration: 7 minutes 46 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/9 12/9	eq: +0.322 (-0.060)
	Player: Opponent: 58.56% (G:12.06% B:0.46%) 41.44% (G:9.41% B:0.29%) Conf: ± 0.020 (+0.302...+0.342) Duration: 6 minutes 21 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

---

Number 4

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 129 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 132 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-A-a-BCAD---bCb--cbb-b--aA:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
to play 31

1.	Rollout1	Bar/24* 6/3*	eq: -0.127
	Player: Opponent: 45.50% (G:18.33% B:0.63%) 54.50% (G:16.36% B:1.20%) Conf: ± 0.023 (-0.150...-0.104) Duration: 10 minutes 33 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/22 8/7	eq: -0.142 (-0.014)
	Player: Opponent: 46.14% (G:11.26% B:0.36%) 53.86% (G:12.77% B:0.28%) Conf: ± 0.016 (-0.158...-0.126) Duration: 7 minutes 14 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

---

Number 5

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 144 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 175 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-a---aE-C--BdB---b-c-bb-BA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	69.43% (G: 29.46% B: 3.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	30.57% (G: 5.56% B: 0.25%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	69.65% (G: 31.45% B: 3.68%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	30.35% (G: 5.68% B: 0.20%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.389
Double:	+1.371
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.911 (-0.089)
Double/Take:	+1.104 (+0.104)
Double/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.027 (+0.884...+0.939)
Confidence Double:	± 0.042 (+1.063...+1.146)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 12 minutes 33 seconds

Messages In This Thread

• Daily Quiz 3/26/11
  Stick -- Saturday, 26 March 2011, at 4:12 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/26/11
    Lucas Bauer -- Saturday, 26 March 2011, at 7:17 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/26/11
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 27 March 2011, at 4:14 a.m.
    • After checking a bot...
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 27 March 2011, at 6:51 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/26/11
    Stein Kulseth -- Sunday, 27 March 2011, at 5:23 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/26/11
    Ian Shaw -- Sunday, 27 March 2011, at 10:33 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/26/11
    Seth -- Monday, 28 March 2011, at 1:59 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/26/11
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 28 March 2011, at 9:25 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/26/11
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 29 March 2011, at 1:18 p.m.
  • Rollouts
    Stick -- Wednesday, 30 March 2011, at 3:30 a.m.