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Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 30 March 2011, at 5:09 a.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 3/27/11 (Stick)

Number 1
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 128
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 138
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-a----F-Ea--bC---c-d-bbA--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 70.82% (G: 25.28% B: 0.61%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.18% (G: 4.77% B: 0.17%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.09% (G: 27.89% B: 0.51%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.91% (G: 5.01% B: 0.22%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.416
Double:+1.307
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.855 (-0.145)
Double/Take:+1.081 (+0.081)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.841...+0.868)
Confidence Double: ± 0.021 (+1.060...+1.102)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 13 minutes 06 seconds

Number 2
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 142
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 154
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-a-B--D-BA--fD---a-c-bbAA-:0:0:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
to play 53

1.Rollout113/8 9/6eq: -0.378
Player:
Opponent:		 40.64% (G:11.47% B:0.44%)
59.36% (G:19.30% B:0.85%)		Conf: ± 0.022 (-0.400...-0.356)
Duration: 8 minutes 11 seconds
2.Rollout123/20 6/1* eq: -0.391 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:		 40.60% (G:11.76% B:0.41%)
59.40% (G:20.66% B:1.44%)		Conf: ± 0.019 (-0.410...-0.372)
Duration: 8 minutes 43 seconds
3.Rollout123/20 13/8eq: -0.392 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:		 41.14% (G:11.55% B:0.50%)
58.86% (G:21.10% B:1.09%)		Conf: ± 0.021 (-0.413...-0.371)
Duration: 8 minutes 08 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Number 3
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 155
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 137
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=aA-B-aC-BA-AfD-----c-bb-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 61.59% (G: 30.15% B: 0.71%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.41% (G: 10.84% B: 0.61%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 61.34% (G: 32.83% B: 0.49%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.66% (G: 11.07% B: 0.68%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.232
Double:+0.885
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.557 (-0.017)
Double/Take:+0.574
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.426)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.020 (+0.538...+0.577)
Confidence Double: ± 0.027 (+0.547...+0.602)
Double Decision confidence: 84.4%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 14 minutes 23 seconds

Number 4
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 161
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 134
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-aBBcaD-C----B-a--acabb--B:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 69.37% (G: 29.87% B: 1.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.63% (G: 9.76% B: 0.49%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.44% (G: 32.75% B: 0.96%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.56% (G: 10.00% B: 0.54%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.594
Redouble:+1.281
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.894 (-0.106)
Redouble/Take:+1.070 (+0.070)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.019 (+0.876...+0.913)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.032 (+1.038...+1.101)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 12 minutes 06 seconds

Number 5
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 132
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 103
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BcBBAB-B---bBB----c-bc-b-:2:-1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10
to play 61

1.Rollout114/8 5/4eq: +0.464
Player:
Opponent:		 72.08% (G:15.38% B:0.68%)
27.92% (G:4.11% B:0.09%)		Conf: ± 0.009 (+0.455...+0.473)
Duration: 3 minutes 59 seconds
2.Rollout114/13 14/8eq: +0.431 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:		 71.78% (G:15.29% B:0.55%)
28.22% (G:5.95% B:0.09%)		Conf: ± 0.011 (+0.420...+0.442)
Duration: 4 minutes 00 second
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

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