| |
BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 3/29/11
Posted By: Stein Kulseth In Response To: Daily Quiz 3/29/11 (Stick)
Date: Wednesday, 30 March 2011, at 1:46 p.m.
- 1: Double/drop
- Woolsey double, but is it a take?
7 numbers close, meaning Black enters on about 9 rolls next turn, leaving him about 50% - He will usually have an indirect to hit and win which will compensate for the variations where he is hit back, and beside the hits the race is about even. That is 4.5 won games.
About half the games go don't cover don't enter, but now White will have more covers, and Black will be worse off in the race if he enters, so the win/loss ratio goes further down, and he will be happy to pick up even 2 games on his entering-next-roll variations - and very little from the 3-roll variations. All in all I don't think it add up to the necessary 9 games won needed.
- 2: Double/take
- Conventional wisdom is to double the well-timed back game when about to clear the 3rd point before the anchor, and that should be a take. Here White isn't yet at this point, but has a lot of freedom with Black on the bar, and with the possibiity of hitting another blot (which I think he should do). Thus at worst he should likely up at the doubling position later, and he may do better - both as Blacks timing may yet be broken, and because Black may hang on the bar for long adding more gammons.
- 3: b/22 7/3*
- Blindly hitting in the home board does not always help one's back game timing, and I usually prefer just throwing the extra checkers into the outfield. Here, however, Black has extremely many builders ready, and there is real value in taking away half his roll - this might enable White to make 6 in the best variations, or to upgrade to 23pt anchor, or to jump a checker more cleanly next turn.
- 4: 23/17* 9/8*
- 23/17 is forced, and then there is a choice between 24/23 securing the 2-3 game, or again a tempo play 9/8. Ans again I like the tempo play which may allow getting the 17 point which will be great for recirculating. After 24/23, Black has 18 numbers that hit on 17, after which White's position might get hard to time properly.
- 5: 13/9 13/7
- White would have to be significantly up in the race to consider 21/11, so the choice seems to be between 8/2 6/2 and the purer 13/7 13/9. Giving a direct shot when it is not needed may seem crazy, and maybe it is, but the resulting position seems much easier to follow up - especially in the bad variations where Black hits or escapes, and White's equity comes form hitting back. Then it is really nice to have a compact position. Finally, now Black has a blot, so this also argues for taking some chances now rather than later.
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.