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Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 30 March 2011, at 3:34 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 3/29/11 (Stick)

Number 1
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 76
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 87
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=aBBBB-B-B-AA------Abccbbb-:2:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 78.78% (G: 1.26% B: 0.01%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.22% (G: 1.59% B: 0.02%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.20% (G: 1.19% B: 0.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.80% (G: 1.75% B: 0.02%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.572
Redouble:+1.117
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.841 (-0.159)
Redouble/Take:+1.024 (+0.024)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.004 (+0.837...+0.845)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.010 (+1.014...+1.034)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 33.2 seconds

Number 2
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 184
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 91
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=abBbCBDAA---aB-a--bbbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 49.86% (G: 31.38% B: 6.82%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 50.14% (G: 2.35% B: 0.09%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 49.73% (G: 31.04% B: 6.76%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 50.27% (G: 2.42% B: 0.08%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:-0.003
Double:+0.695
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.355
Double/Take:+0.202 (-0.153)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.645)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
540 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves: 3 ply, cube decisions: 4 ply
Search interval: Huge
Confidence No Double: ± 0.047 (+0.309...+0.402)
Confidence Double: ± 0.059 (+0.144...+0.261)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Beaver Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 29 minutes 06 seconds

Number 3

(lots of variance left)

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 146
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 205
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=---aB-CB----dBaaac--bbC-BA:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10
to play 43

1.Rollout1Bar/18eq: -0.706
Player:
Opponent:		 37.62% (G:7.00% B:0.35%)
62.38% (G:30.29% B:3.54%)		Conf: ± 0.079 (-0.785...-0.627)
Duration: 26 minutes 22 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/22 7/3* eq: -0.719 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		 37.60% (G:7.74% B:0.48%)
62.40% (G:31.61% B:4.35%)		Conf: ± 0.078 (-0.797...-0.641)
Duration: 27 minutes 44 seconds
1 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves: 3 ply, cube decisions: 4 ply
Search interval: Huge

Number 4

.................

Number 5
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 136
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 145
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-a---BDBB---dC---c-dbB-a--:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10
to play 64

1.Rollout121/11eq: +0.298
Player:
Opponent:		 58.84% (G:11.19% B:0.35%)
41.16% (G:11.48% B:0.25%)		Conf: ± 0.016 (+0.282...+0.314)
Duration: 7 minutes 56 seconds
2.Rollout113/9 13/7eq: +0.272 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:		 56.23% (G:15.76% B:0.57%)
43.77% (G:8.88% B:0.32%)		Conf: ± 0.018 (+0.254...+0.290)
Duration: 8 minutes 00 second
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

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