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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 3/30/11
Posted By: Stein Kulseth In Response To: Daily Quiz 3/30/11 (Stick)
Date: Wednesday, 30 March 2011, at 8:34 p.m.
- 1: Double/take
- This looks passable, but for the Quiz worth some analysis.
Black gets a direct shot on 17 rolls, for 6- hits, an indirect on the 8 small rolls for 1+ hits, in total 7. The only repeaters are when missed after the small rolls and by a similar ratio Black can expect about one more hit. This means that Black must be able to race to a win more than 1 out of 28 games. In the prototype positin for these, White will have come home and Black will be on roll with 76 pips and a near flat distribution estimated at 85 EPC against an 8 roll position which has 57 EPC.
I don't know any EPC to percentage win, but by converting White's to a normal-distribution race, by subtracting the same amount of wastage that I added to black, I hope that this is vaguely equal to a 76 vs 48 pip race, which then should again be almost like a 48 vs 68 with White onroll. Kleinman then gives a coeff (24^2)/112 = 5.1, corresponding to 95% wins. So Black can expect to win 1 in 20 which is more than 1 in 28.
So it seems it is takeable after all - or I must redo the math ...
- 2: 15/10 13/10
- Sure wouldn't have thought long on this play OTB. Saves the runner, makes a point, unstacks the mid. However, 8/3 6/3 is also possible, 3s are duplicated and an extra board point adds a little pressure on Black's blots. Still the text play is also very non-committal, with the blot taken care of White is free to run, prime or attack as the dice dictate.
- 3: Double/take
- 4s are market losers (except 42 - hit), and White often has a couple of rolls to get them. His non-jumpers play OK: 6s make the 2pt cleanly keeping the prime, as do 33 and 22, 5s make the pt keeping a 5-prime, as do 32. 12,13,and 14 breaks to a 5 prime while the 2-pt still is blotted, but if not hit White is likely to remake it and has moved slow, so will have more chances to roll the 4s needed. Seems to be worth a double. Black otoh has a few immediate favourable sequences involving hitting an uncovered blot, and some long range possibilities where White cannot get both out. I venture a take for black
- 4: Double/drop
- The 1-5 isn't too much better than a 5 point game, and White seems to have flex enough to be able to fill in the board nicely. Also there is an outfield point to be made which will block 5s, and may make Black crunch. Black will have chances to improve to a better back anchor, but I still don't think it is enough.
- 5: 23%
- I completely suck at estimations like this, but Black double hits with all 3s and single hits with 51 52 53 56, thats about half the rolls. If White does not anchor immediately it's Gammon City, and even when White rolls an immediate 3, there are enough blots to go round to get some gammons off the 3point. Of course White may also still win, either by rolling an immediate hit from the bar, or winning from a made three point. I'd say - guess -Black wins 23% Gammons here. Did I mention that I suck at this?
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