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Daily Quiz 3/30/11

Posted By: Lucas Bauer
Date: Thursday, 31 March 2011, at 12:15 a.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 3/30/11 (Stick)

1. 18 numbers leave a direct shot, he will hit on average 34%. Thats 17%, then there are 7 numbers that stay put leaving either a 7 or 8, he hits that 6/36 so there's another 3.4%. 20.4% + how many races are won with the remaining 11/36 that come past. Maybe 1%, so 21.4%, plus brown will lose some games even when he hits. Redouble/Pass

2. 15/7* rather than making a point, so as not to just hand him your bar point and/or his 5 point.

3. 11/36 are mostly market losers that win about (88%)(30%)= 27%. 15/36 roll a six and maintain the six prime, then there are various sequences of dance or come in/4 or no 4 that I combined to get about (65%)(42%)= 27%. Then 10/36 rolls that break the 6 prime, 55 being the worst, (58%)(28%)= 16%. 70% Wins, 34% G, 20% LG, so 77% = Double/Take.

4. Brown needs to get a checker out to maintain timing, down 48 is a lot and he loses some gammons for sure. He obviously needs to hit a shot to win, but I think he gets forced off the 20pt prematurely too much, Double/Pass.

5. 20/36 come in and hit, some twice so (56%)(60%G) + assuming we dance he will cover 3pt, so (30%)(42%) + (14%)(7%) = 48% Gammons

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