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Daily Quiz 3/30/11

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 31 March 2011, at 12:40 a.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 3/30/11 (Stick)

1. This kind of faceoff is pretty common and I'm pretty sure that if the race were closer this would be a clear take. As it stands I haven't memorized the appropriate racing formulas, so I don't know, but I'd take OTB. D/T.

2. Until recently I would not have hesitated to hit. Now I'm not so sure since I've learned that making an outfield point, especially when leading in the race, is more valuable than I previously thought. I'll go with the hit because the opponent can't hit back and cover (except with 33) so we succeed in disrupting his plans to make either his 18pt or 5pt, with relatively little risk.

3. If it weren't for Black's homeboard blot I would take, but I think that blot hurts Black's chances a lot. D/P.

4. Black might be able to upgrade to a decent 2-5 or 3-5 backgame but has to be fairly lucky to do so. As matters stand I think he has to pass. D/P.

5. Black doesn't look like much of a favorite to win the game here but clearly a much higher percentage of his wins are gammons than at the start of the game. I'd guess 20–25% cubeless gammons but really have no idea.

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