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a bit of algebra -- does this make sense?

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Thursday, 31 March 2011, at 1:12 a.m.

In Response To: a bit of algebra -- does this make sense? (Timothy Chow)

"Not sure how this is useful, though. "

I've used the idea over the board. I thought about it a little bit differently but it is essentially the same.

Suppose I have a position that I need 25% wins to take. I start breaking down to cases,

For example: a) in the 20 games where A happens I get 6 wins, b) in the 10 games where B happens I get 1 win. c) In the other 6 games I get a position which is essentially the same as I started with. I just assume that it is 25% wins there and add on 1.5 more wins.

Total of 6 wins + 1 wins + 1.5 wins = 8.5 wins < 9 wins so drop. It works. If the position is actually better than 25% my technique also gives a value greater than 25% and vice versa.

What Chuck would do instead is just think 7 wins out of 30 games is 23.3% < 25%. I instead do another multiplication and addition instead of the division.

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