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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 4/1/11
Posted By: Lucas Bauer In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/1/11 (Stick)
Date: Friday, 1 April 2011, at 3:48 p.m.
1. Double for sure, 9 checkers in the zone 2.5 points, lots of gammons. Lets try to estimate wins/gammons to see if its a take. 64% wins, 32% G, 7% GL. So, 36-12.5 = 23.5% I guess that is enough to take, Double/Take
2. Make the 2 or 18/8? OTB I would make the 2 point no present risk. The argument for running now is that browns board will continue to improve, and white will be forced off the 18 soon enough. However, in the near future white can roll a 52,53,54 and run and be safer than running now, plus 22,33,44,55. Also, with the 2 point we are better prepared to attack if he runs off the ace. 8/2 6/4
3. 21,31,23, so about 83%, of the time you are off in at least 2 rolls, fours or better = immediately win 9%. Brown gets all off 14% next roll. On whites 17% misses, brown can claim with the cube. 74% of the time brown needs twos or bettter, so (74%)(14%)= %10 + 17% = 27%. Redouble/Take
4. Any 4, (42%), followed by a dance (70%) is a market loser = 30%, also any roll where brown doesnt roll big doubles after white safes the blot, or misses when he doesnt safe it up. Plenty of market losers, so Double for sure, I would pass if I were white, because of the race deficit. Double/Pass
5. 16/13 6/4* because of cube ownership; it wins a lot more even though it loses gammon more.
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