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not an April Fool position

Posted By: Turz
Date: Friday, 1 April 2011, at 4:44 p.m.

In Response To: not an April Fool position (Chuck Bower)

I had written a complicated answer with probability calculations with the assumption that white was behind a 6-prime.

But it's a 5-prime, so I have to throw it away.

Even White has her market losers, by the way, if Blue dances. They are 61 and 62.

Anyway it's really tough for White, who needs specific numbers both to escape and cover.

Let's make it "simple":
- If Blue hits now (30%) it's a likely gammon. Let's say 25% wins for Black with 20% gammons and only 5% wins for White.
- If Blue dances (70%) and White doesn't roll a 6 (70%, so 50% altogether) she starts crashing.
- Another turn without escaping (so 70% of this 50%, i.e. 35%) and White crashes seriously, therefore probably loses. Let's say 30% for Blue and 5% for White.
- If in the second turn White rolls a 6 instead (another 30% of 50% i.e. 15%), it's a race against 3 blue hitters, I'd say with even probability to be hit. So 7.5% for both.
- If Blue dances on the first roll and White rolls 61 or 62 (11% of 70%, i.e. 8%) White wins.
- In the remaining 12% (Blue dances and White escapes without covering), it's too complicated but I would give 8% to White and 4% to Blue.

So 66.5% (20% G) for Blue and 33.5% for White.

Double / Pass (as the recube potential is not enough for White to redouble immediately if Blue dances)

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