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BGonline.org Forums
not an April Fool position
Posted By: BenF In Response To: not an April Fool position (Chuck Bower)
Date: Friday, 1 April 2011, at 6:53 p.m.
I am definitely still an intermediate player so I know I could be way off base with my analysis of some positions, please feel free to point out anything you think I should take another look at. With that said, I just start counting rolls. This game has two possibilities from the start, 11/36 hits right now, and 25/36 non hits. That is nearly 33% wins right there.
Then of the times I do not hit now, he has 5 types of rolls, Perfect rolls that close us out and escape (61 62) [few wins, many gammon losses],
Close out rolls that leave him crashing next roll (11 12 13 14 23) [We are favored to win when he crashes],
Crashing rolls (22 24 33 34 35) [Again, we are favored to win].
Lastly, his single shots rolls (15 25 36 45 46 55), and Double shot rolls (44 56 66). So 15 of his 36 rolls leave us shot(s) again, so assuming we miss white on the first shake we will still hit white (20x4)+(11x11) times which is 201/1296 rolls, or ~15% (1 in 6.5).
So, does white have a take? Without being able to do 3 and 4 roll probabilities in my head I have to take an educated guess that all those numbers above say yes, white has a take. Does blue have a double? Well, if we hit now we are too good to double, if we hit later we are still too good to double in most cases. If those market losers were not good enough, the fact that there are a large number of 3 and 4 roll combination where we are favored seems like it ought to be enough to warrant a cube. And as an added bonus, white might drop! I guess it is time to commit to an answer, I feel like it is for sure initial double/take, and I will say Redouble/Take as well.
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