[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

not an April Fool position

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Friday, 1 April 2011, at 7:39 p.m.

In Response To: not an April Fool position (Chuck Bower)

Let's assume for simplicity that if blue rolls a 3 he wins outright (yes he loses a few, but he also wins a few gammons, and they probably roughly balance.) That adds 11/36 to the equity sum.

If not, then let's assume white wins if white rolls a six to escape. That happens 11/36 of the time. Also, white covers 20/36 times, but four shakes are duplicated (i.e. escape and cover). So, I count 9/36 times where blue get's another crack at entering - assume that it's still a 5 point board and we get the next summand in the equity series:

25/36 * 9/36 * 11/36 - I can't calculate this in my head, but it's pretty small.

We can continue this, but I'm not seeing the equity sum converging much above 50%.

Another way to look at it is that blue wins if he can shake a 3 before white shakes a 6 (grossly oversimplified) - the chances of that are about even. The main thing that blue has going for him is that white's board will crunch while waiting for a six and his won't. I hold here, and think it's an easy take.

Blue definitely has market losers (any 3, or 33 44 55 54 52 51 for white), but I'm not seeing enough GWC to double.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.