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Roll Outs

Posted By: Pilgrim
Date: Saturday, 2 April 2011, at 4:11 p.m.

In Response To: Doubling while bearing in against a double anchor (Stick)

Position 1

This result was no surpise - I included it only because it is the logical start of the sequence. As noted in some of the replies, the double anchor and lack of any real market losers means this is not a double.





White is eXtremeGammon

score: 0
pip: 157
Money session
Beaver
pip: 124
score: 0

Blue is William
XGID=----CbDbB--CcC-a---bbab---:0:0:1:00:0:0:2:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 66.50% (G: 7.33% B: 0.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.50% (G: 4.92% B: 0.16%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.69% (G: 7.40% B: 0.16%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.31% (G: 4.85% B: 0.17%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.354
Double:+0.718
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.585
Double/Take:+0.510 (-0.075)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.415)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.015 (+0.570...+0.601)
Confidence Double: ± 0.018 (+0.492...+0.528)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 3 hours 49 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Position 2

In hindsight, not a surpise this is a double/take. The two spares on the high points gives me time to roll doubles to clear the 11 or 9 point.





White is eXtremeGammon

score: 0
pip: 150
Money session
Beaver
pip: 108
score: 0

Blue is William
XGID=--A-CbCbBC-Cba-----bbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:2:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 73.99% (G: 6.61% B: 0.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.01% (G: 3.02% B: 0.10%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.11% (G: 6.47% B: 0.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.89% (G: 2.99% B: 0.10%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.515
Double:+1.033
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.844 (-0.026)
Double/Take:+0.870
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.130)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.834...+0.855)
Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+0.859...+0.881)
Double Decision confidence: 99.9%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 7 hours 02 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Position 3





White is eXtremeGammon

score: 0
pip: 144
Money session
Beaver
pip: 103
score: 0

Blue is William
XGID=--B-BbCbCC-Baa----abbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:2:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 76.03% (G: 6.12% B: 0.05%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.97% (G: 2.53% B: 0.09%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.30% (G: 5.92% B: 0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.70% (G: 2.51% B: 0.09%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.556
Double:+1.119
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.869 (-0.111)
Double/Take:+0.980
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.020)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.861...+0.878)
Confidence Double: ± 0.009 (+0.971...+0.990)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 5 hours 31 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Position 4





White is eXtremeGammon

score: 0
pip: 138
Money session
Beaver
pip: 94
score: 0

Blue is William
XGID=-AB-CbBbBC-B-a----bbbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:2:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 69.95% (G: 7.28% B: 0.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.05% (G: 4.13% B: 0.17%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.31% (G: 6.89% B: 0.05%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.69% (G: 4.14% B: 0.17%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.430
Double:+0.865
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.645 (-0.033)
Double/Take:+0.677
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.323)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.634...+0.655)
Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+0.664...+0.691)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 3 hours 44 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Position 5

TCTC after 10k roll out. The loss of the spares damage the position but the possibility of clearing the 11 point keeps it close





White is eXtremeGammon

score: 0
pip: 130
Money session
Beaver
pip: 87
score: 0

Blue is William
XGID=-AC-CbBbBB-B----a-abbbba--:0:0:1:00:0:0:2:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 66.45% (G: 7.41% B: 0.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.55% (G: 5.50% B: 0.23%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.01% (G: 7.16% B: 0.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.99% (G: 5.49% B: 0.22%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.347
Double:+0.711
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.515
Double/Take:+0.513 (-0.001)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.485)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.004 (+0.510...+0.519)
Confidence Double: ± 0.006 (+0.507...+0.520)
Double Decision confidence: 61.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 11 hours 09 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Position 6

The loss of the 9 point takes this back into no double territory





White is eXtremeGammon

score: 0
pip: 124
Money session
Beaver
pip: 76
score: 0

Blue is William
XGID=-ACADbBbB--B------abbbca--:0:0:1:00:0:0:2:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 62.26% (G: 10.82% B: 0.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.74% (G: 6.10% B: 0.22%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.40% (G: 10.84% B: 0.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.60% (G: 5.94% B: 0.22%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.291
Double:+0.592
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.378
Double/Take:+0.344 (-0.035)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.622)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.366...+0.391)
Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+0.327...+0.361)
Double Decision confidence: 99.9%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Position 7

Black's lack of timing starts to tell - if white survives by not leaving a shot or not being hit and back roles a 6 he is in trouble





White is eXtremeGammon

score: 0
pip: 116
Money session
Beaver
pip: 69
score: 0

Blue is William
XGID=-ACBDbCb---B-------bbbbab-:0:0:1:00:0:0:2:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 65.44% (G: 13.84% B: 0.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.56% (G: 2.72% B: 0.08%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.58% (G: 13.63% B: 0.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.42% (G: 2.65% B: 0.08%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.420
Double:+0.843
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.573 (-0.012)
Double/Take:+0.585
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.415)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.004 (+0.569...+0.577)
Confidence Double: ± 0.005 (+0.581...+0.590)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 12 hours 47 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Position 8





White is eXtremeGammon

score: 0
pip: 112
Money session
Beaver
pip: 64
score: 0

Blue is William
XGID=-BCBDbBb---B-------abbbbb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:2:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 63.81% (G: 15.01% B: 0.17%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.19% (G: 2.87% B: 0.08%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.89% (G: 13.68% B: 0.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.11% (G: 2.02% B: 0.05%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.398
Double:+0.790
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.463 (-0.088)
Double/Take:+0.551
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.449)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.015 (+0.448...+0.478)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+0.533...+0.570)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 35 minutes 37 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Position 9





White is eXtremeGammon

score: 0
pip: 107
Money session
Beaver
pip: 61
score: 0

Blue is William
XGID=-CCBCbBb---B--------bbbbc-:0:0:1:00:0:0:2:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 67.06% (G: 12.22% B: 0.05%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.94% (G: 2.42% B: 0.05%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.13% (G: 12.14% B: 0.05%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.87% (G: 2.01% B: 0.03%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.439
Double:+0.888
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.577 (-0.063)
Double/Take:+0.640
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.360)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.564...+0.589)
Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+0.624...+0.656)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 25 minutes 07 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Position 10





White is eXtremeGammon

score: 0
pip: 91
Money session
Beaver
pip: 41
score: 0

Blue is William
XGID=-ECBCbB----a-------abbbbc-:0:0:1:D:0:0:2:0:10
Blue double to 2 take ?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 96.96% (G: 10.35% B: 0.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 3.04% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 97.66% (G: 9.46% B: 0.01%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 2.34% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+1.043
Double:+2.096
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+1.041
Double/Take:+2.079 (+1.038)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (-0.041)
Best Cube action: Too Good to Double / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.004 (+1.037...+1.045)
Confidence Double: ± 0.006 (+2.074...+2.085)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 17 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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