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Daily Quiz 4/4/11

Posted By: Stein Kulseth
Date: Monday, 4 April 2011, at 7:41 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/4/11 (Stick)

1: Double/drop
Kleinman count puts Black at ~17% in a straight race, Keith count has Black at 3 pips shy of a take, which should be a little lower ~16%. If Black hits, she wins if she can cover, or if White does not hit back, or even a good portion when he does. If we make Black a 91% favourite on hits, she picks up 75% gwc on a hit, and will need to hit about 12% of the time to take, meaning she must get a shot about 36% of the time or 13 in 36.

2 rolls blot immediately (16), 11 rolls clear the 11pt after which there will be few shots - count .5 shot total from these 11 - 8 rolls force clears the 8 after which another 8 blot next turn, and fewer rolls clear so there may be repeated shots if Black can stay - count 2.5. That's 5 out of 21 The remaining rolls White can play in his board giving almost status quo, but both are running out of timing, so lets assume a similar blot ratio for these as for the others. That won't come near 13/36 so I choose drop for Black here.

2: 5/2 5/1*
Leaving the least number of shots, least number of blots, putting Black on the bar, and if Black enters on 4 or 5, the blot on the ace is safe for the time being. I cannot get more out of this sorry position.
3: Double/drop
The question is whether White is technically too good. There are a lot of gammons if the 3rd checker is hit. However, black's strong board makes it a little risky with the open 4 pt, so I cash now.
4: No double/take
Well timed back games are supposed to double take when about to clear the 3rd point in front of the anchors, I am not sure whether this holds for 4-5 games but that is my working hypothesis.
Here White's possible doubling advantage is that Black has timing problems. However they are less severe than they look for as of now 5s and 4s play and 6s are blocked, and she still have small numbers to play. White's blockade otoh cannot and should not be held, so Black rates to liberate one or both her spares soon. I'd hold the cube for one roll.
5: Double/take
Black's position seems to have a lot of play, with White being stripped on almost all points, and it isn't cost free to attack black's lone checker given Black's strong board. The initial though was no double, but White actually has quite nice diversification in that 1s hit and non-1s break the mid cleanly giving White the forward flexibility he will need to attack safely later. I think this makes it a proper double/take

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