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Opening 51 discussion of 2nd roll misplays
Posted By: David Rockwell In Response To: Opening 51 4 ply at DMP (David Rockwell)
Date: Tuesday, 5 April 2011, at 12:30 a.m.
The opening 51 roll at DMP is close enough to consider the difficulty of 2nd roll choices.
I see six response worth discussing after 51S.
51S–11 There are still many players who play N (Near 8-7(2), 6-5(2)) leaving a direct six shot. This is a huge error. If you think your opponent may make this mistake, it is a big reason to split.
51S-21 There has been discussion on this site about the 21$ response being close for money. It is clearly best at DMP. And, second best is not the splitting play you will usually see. It is U (Up 24-21). I have [$ U10 S18 D20 V29] <31*10*5.
51S-54 Stick’s rollout shows [R S15] <15. I believe that the majority of players will get this wrong.
51S-55 Here’s another mistake waiting to happen. [P N12 A18 M20] <20**15. Most players will play A without thinking, especially since A is correct for money. Since the opener has few point making numbers, the hitting tempo is low value and it is better to keep the checkers in play and not leave a shot on the eight point.
51S-62 and 63 I don’t have good rollouts for these because I don't think they are close. The DMP play is the same as the money play – run. If you know your opponent will split, it argues for an opening 51S.
As for 51$...
51$-11 I saw a very strong player hit in this position in the last couple of weeks. Still, I think most will get this right and play N.
51$-21 and 51$-51 Is anyone going to split with these? Perhaps a few will. The errors are sizable [$ S15] and [$ S8]. But, I will guess that the majority will correctly counter-slot.
51$-32 Few are going to play the correct move here, 32$ (Slot 13-10, 6-4). However the more likely response of split is close. You won’t regain much gambit equity unless your opponent plays D [$ S3 D14] <31.
51$-52 Once again, few will play the correct 52$ (13-8, 6-4). But, you don’t gain much from a mistake. [$ S3 D10] <31.
51$-63 This rollout is [R S11 $25] <20*10. The splitting error is sizable. But, many will get this right running to dodge the stack of four on the eight point.
So, even though 51$ is seen far less frequently than 51S, it appears to me that the responder is much more likely to give away equity on the 2nd roll if you play 51S. Add this to the very small rollout margin and splitting looks better to me. One could argue for 51$ as the more complex play. I’m not going to risk it unless the disparity in abilities is rather large.
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