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Opening 51 discussion of 2nd roll misplays

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 5 April 2011, at 3:14 p.m.

In Response To: Opening 51 discussion of 2nd roll misplays (mtuhtan)

You could well be right. I was mostly basing my percentages on my interpretation of David's perceptions and otherwise grabbing numbers out of the air (without much thought). Feel free to adjust as you feel appropriate.

For example, if you think that 51S-62 is 50% (instead of 25%) and 51S-63 is 30% (instead of 15%), that gives you ((50% x 20) + (30% x 46)) / 18 = 1.32, which increases the overall error-edge of S over $ from 1.61 to 2.27 thousandths.

Other opinions are welcome (and everyone has a different field of opponents). If enough people, including David, respond with perceived inputs (make your guesses exact percentages, please!), I'll rerun the numbers.

(Mostly, I wanted to loosely demonstrate how to perform such an analysis for people who hadn't tried. Also, while it is a valid adjustment, I find that there is a tendency for some people to imagine that response errors make a larger difference than they do. Fifteen years ago, a top giant told me, all wild-eyed, how much response-error equity he must be gaining by playing opening 64P, and I was eventually able to convince him that his overestimate was at least tenfold.)

Nack

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