[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

21$-65R+43C-21H+11 - rollout, variants and questions

Posted By: mtuhtan
Date: Tuesday, 5 April 2011, at 5:01 p.m.

In Response To: 21$-65R+43C-21H+11? (mtuhtan)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 153
Money session
pip: 162
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---BD-B--AeDa--c-da---AA:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 11

1.Rollout1Bar/22 6/5eq: -0,092
Player:
Opponent:		 47,44% (G:12,77% B:0,45%)
52,56% (G:13,33% B:0,60%)		Conf: ± 0,005 (-0,097...-0,087)
Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/21eq: -0,093 (-0,002)
Player:
Opponent:		 47,45% (G:12,63% B:0,44%)
52,55% (G:13,22% B:0,61%)		Conf: ± 0,005 (-0,098...-0,088)
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/23 8/7(2)eq: -0,113 (-0,022)
Player:
Opponent:		 46,92% (G:13,14% B:0,48%)
53,08% (G:13,77% B:0,72%)		Conf: ± 0,007 (-0,120...-0,106)
Duration: 49 minutes 31 seconds
4.Rollout2Bar/24 8/7(2) 6/5eq: -0,116 (-0,024)
Player:
Opponent:		 46,76% (G:13,68% B:0,52%)
53,24% (G:14,40% B:0,87%)		Conf: ± 0,008 (-0,124...-0,108)
Duration: 49 minutes 50 seconds
5.Rollout3Bar/22 11/10eq: -0,122 (-0,030)
Player:
Opponent:		 46,75% (G:12,50% B:0,48%)
53,25% (G:13,20% B:0,54%)		Conf: ± 0,010 (-0,132...-0,112)
Duration: 25 minutes 44 seconds
6.Rollout3Bar/22 24/23eq: -0,126 (-0,034)
Player:
Opponent:		 46,66% (G:12,28% B:0,44%)
53,34% (G:13,22% B:0,56%)		Conf: ± 0,011 (-0,137...-0,115)
Duration: 25 minutes 20 seconds
7.Rollout3Bar/23 11/10 6/5eq: -0,129 (-0,037)
Player:
Opponent:		 46,44% (G:13,18% B:0,42%)
53,56% (G:13,98% B:0,72%)		Conf: ± 0,011 (-0,140...-0,118)
Duration: 25 minutes 00 second
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45297676
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

2 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45297676
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

3 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45297676
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21


OTB I played bar/23 8/7 (Timothy's and Casper's choice), but that's 3rd best play.

Yoga split, bar/23 11/10 6/5 (Turz's and CMC's choice) is only 7th best play.


I also (as Turz) thought that U (bar/21) is wasting whole roll, but it is too close to call between that play and bar/22 6/5 as best play. (If I had to choose between bar/22 6/5 and bar/22 11/10, I would probably play latter, which is 5th best play)

Is this because opponent will probably make his 5pt, so we must start to fight hard for advanced anchor?

Why is bar/22 6/5 so much better than bar/22 11/10?


Some variants below:

1.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 155
Money session
pip: 162
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---BD-B--AfD---c-da---AA:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 11

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

If we move opponent's blot from his 11pt to the midpoint, then bar/23 8/7(2) is the best play (according to XGR+).

Is this because we take away his good six (11/5) so now it's more important to block his sixes from back checker, or because his threats to make 5pt are not as strong as before?

2.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 153
Money session
pip: 157
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---BD-C--AeCa--c-da---AA:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 11

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

If we move one our checker from midpoint to 8pt, then advancing back checker seems not important as before. Why is that?

bar/24 8/7(2) 6/5 and bar/23 8/7(2) are close as the best plays (XGR+), bar/21 is 4th best play

3.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 153
Money session
pip: 161
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---BD-B-A-eDa--c-da---AA:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 11

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

If we move our blot from 11pt to 10pt, then bar/23 8/7(2) is slightly ahead of bar/22 6/5 and bar/24 8/7(2) 6/5 (XGR+).

I can't see why this modification gives different result than original position.
What is the duty of checker on 10pt when we make 7pt? Why is in original position bar/24 11/10 8/7(2) only 8th best play? (not included in rollout)


To summarize: I don't have a clue about this position :) And I would be very thankful if somebody (not limited to Nack, everybody's opinion is welcome) could explain to me (and others who didn't find the best moves) how to evaluate this position (and variants) and why the best moves are the best.

Thank you in advance.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.