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Opening 51 discussion of 2nd roll misplays

Posted By: mtuhtan
Date: Tuesday, 5 April 2011, at 6:24 p.m.

In Response To: Opening 51 discussion of 2nd roll misplays (Nack Ballard)

Other opinions are welcome (and everyone has a different field of opponents).


Ok, I will post only situations where my estimate is different than yours.

I think less than 30% of players would play 51S as response to 51$.
More than 20% player would play 63S as response to 51$.
And as I said earlier - more than 25% and 15% would split with 62 and 63 after 51S.


Fifteen years ago, a top giant told me, all wild-eyed, how much response-error equity he must be gaining by playing opening 64P, and I was eventually able to convince him that his overestimate was at least tenfold.

Don't know how much he thought he would gain and how far off was he, but I think it's not just direct response move where he (or anybody else) could gain "error equity".
But still, even considering second response (fourth roll of the game), gained equity is probably lower than he thought.

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