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Opening 51 discussion of 2nd roll misplays

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Tuesday, 5 April 2011, at 8:15 p.m.

In Response To: Opening 51 discussion of 2nd roll misplays (mtuhtan)

When you get down to the 2nd response, the chances of systematic misplays favoring one original play over the other start to fade. They may be there. But having the ability to predict that one original move will generate measurably more than the other is unlikely. This is especially true when you realize that it is the net misplays which is relevant (your opponent's minus your own). Arguments are made that generic complexity will generate more misplays for one's opponent while the player plays perfectly or very well. I can't refute those arguments, but I am sceptical. The tree of possibilities grows to rapidly in many directions making it difficult to draw reliable generalizations. Any path out of the opening can lead to any type of game.

As an exercise, try to predict which is more difficult, 4th rolls after 51$ and after 51S. Play 51$, roll the dice and make the best play. Roll the dice and make the best play again. Then write down the best move for all 21 4th rolls. Do the exercise again after an opening 51S using the same 2nd and 3rd rolls. Where did you lose the most equity - after 51$ or 51S? Were you able to predict the difficulty of the exercise before you started?

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