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Opening 51 discussion of 2nd roll misplays

Posted By: Philippe Michel
Date: Tuesday, 5 April 2011, at 9:43 p.m.

In Response To: Opening 51 discussion of 2nd roll misplays (David Rockwell)

Arguments are made that generic complexity will generate more misplays for one's opponent while the player plays perfectly or very well. I can't refute those arguments, but I am sceptical. The tree of possibilities grows to rapidly in many directions making it difficult to draw reliable generalizations. Any path out of the opening can lead to any type of game.

Specific paths indeed look intractable, but in your rollouts the slot took clearly more time than the split, 13-14% more. After accounting for forced or irrelevant moves, that may mean 2 more decisions for each player.

Assuming everything else is equal, it looks like it wouldn't take a large skill gap to override both the rollout result and the corrections as estimated by Nack.

Messages In This Thread

• Opening 51 4 ply at DMP
  David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 5 April 2011, at 12:24 a.m.
  • Opening 51 discussion of 2nd roll misplays
    David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 5 April 2011, at 12:30 a.m.
    • Opening 51 discussion of 2nd roll misplays
      Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 5 April 2011, at 5:45 a.m.
      • Opening 51 discussion of 2nd roll misplays
        mtuhtan -- Tuesday, 5 April 2011, at 6:24 a.m.
        • Opening 51 discussion of 2nd roll misplays
          Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 5 April 2011, at 3:14 p.m.
          • Opening 51 discussion of 2nd roll misplays
            mtuhtan -- Tuesday, 5 April 2011, at 6:24 p.m.
            • Opening 51 discussion of 2nd roll misplays
              David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 5 April 2011, at 8:15 p.m.
              • Opening 51 discussion of 2nd roll misplays
                Philippe Michel -- Tuesday, 5 April 2011, at 9:43 p.m.
                • Opening 51 discussion of 2nd roll misplays
                  Stick -- Wednesday, 6 April 2011, at 1:59 a.m.
            • Opening 51 discussion of 2nd roll misplays
              Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 5 April 2011, at 11:39 p.m.
              • Opening 51 discussion of 2nd roll misplays
                Stick -- Wednesday, 6 April 2011, at 1:52 a.m.
        • Opening 51 discussion of 2nd roll misplays
          Chase -- Tuesday, 5 April 2011, at 11:40 p.m.
          • Opening 51 discussion of 2nd roll misplays
            Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 5 April 2011, at 11:54 p.m.
            • Opening 51 discussion of 2nd roll misplays
              Stick -- Wednesday, 6 April 2011, at 1:45 a.m.
              • 51S-62 at 8 away 5 away Rollout
                Stick -- Wednesday, 6 April 2011, at 3:31 a.m.
              • 51S-62
                Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 7 April 2011, at 4:23 a.m.
                • 51S-62
                  Turz -- Thursday, 7 April 2011, at 8:52 a.m.
                  • Money to dmp ratio, error sensitivity
                    Nack Ballard -- Friday, 8 April 2011, at 8:28 p.m.
      • Opening 51 discussion of 2nd roll misplays
        David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 5 April 2011, at 5:50 p.m.
        • 51S-11N
          mtuhtan -- Tuesday, 5 April 2011, at 6:07 p.m.
          • 51S-11N
            David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 5 April 2011, at 7:39 p.m.
            • 51S-11N
              mtuhtan -- Tuesday, 5 April 2011, at 7:51 p.m.
              • 51S-11N
                David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 5 April 2011, at 8:19 p.m.
            • 51S-11N
              eXtreme Gammon -- Tuesday, 5 April 2011, at 8:42 p.m.
              • 51S-11N
                David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 5 April 2011, at 9:05 p.m.
          • 51S-11N
            Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 6 April 2011, at 12:13 a.m.
            • A vote from the Chicago chou
              David Rockwell -- Wednesday, 6 April 2011, at 1:28 a.m.
              • A vote from the Chicago chou
                Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 7 April 2011, at 4:25 a.m.
  • Reposting my XG2 RO
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 5 April 2011, at 4:21 a.m.
  • Opening 51 4 ply at DMP
    Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 5 April 2011, at 4:30 a.m.
  • XG2 4 ply RO started
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 6 April 2011, at 2:22 a.m.