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Opening 51 discussion of 2nd roll misplays
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: Opening 51 discussion of 2nd roll misplays (mtuhtan)
Date: Tuesday, 5 April 2011, at 11:39 p.m.
Other opinions are welcome (and everyone has a different field of opponents).
Ok, I will post only situations where my estimate is different than yours.
I think less than 30% of players would play 51S as response to 51$. More than 20% player would play 63S as response to 51$. And as I said earlier - more than 25% and 15% would split with 62 and 63 after 51S.
Okay, thanks. It's not the exactitude I requested, but I'll do my best to average it in after other opinions have been offered.
(From earlier post): Fifteen years ago, a top giant told me, all wild-eyed, how much response-error equity he must be gaining by playing opening 64P, and I was eventually able to convince him that his overestimate was at least tenfold.
Don't know how much he thought he would gain and how far off was he, but I think it's not just direct response move where he (or anybody else) could gain "error equity". But still, even considering second response (fourth roll of the game), gained equity is probably lower than he thought.
No, he was referring to the immediate response equity. In our discussion, he and I agreed (as I believe does David) that measuring exact responses going in deeper is not only negligible but probably slightly negative. What you'd be hoping for is that Opp's fourth and sixth (etc.) roll errors outweigh your own at-least-as-relevant third and fifth (etc.) roll errors.
I measure immediate response errors separately from long term complications. Opening 51S induces more immediate response error equity, but opening 51$ creates (on average) a longer game that allows both players to err more (which favors the stronger player and is also a more difficult factor to estimate). For more on the concept, see Philippe's post.
Purely from a performance (not a learning-curve) point of view, the weaker player should open with 51S at dmp, because (a) rollouts slightly favor S, (b) it induces more immediate errors than $, and (c) it creates fewer long term complications. The stronger player has a more difficult decision because (c) conflicts with (a) and (b).
Opening 64 for money pretty much works the same way. Does the stronger player try to induce immediate errors (which 64P might not even generate any more) or play for long term complications? I lean towards S, assuming that 64S actually does create longer games. By contrast, the weaker player should avoid S, but he has a dilemma whether to play P or the simpler R (the latter now seeming to be the way to go because the newest rollouts have R in almost in a dead heat).
Nack
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