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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 4/5/11
Posted By: Stein Kulseth In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/5/11 (Stick)
Date: Wednesday, 6 April 2011, at 7:49 a.m.
- 1: 24/23 9/7
- A little behind in race, but no anchor, worse board still puts White on the safe side of the Magriel criteria. Also, the fact that Black is less than flexible count against allowing her to start an attack and means that White is not yet desperate to escape or make an advanced anchor.
So I want White to lift the 9pt slot, and then making the 23pt anchor isn't too bad here. Basically staying out of trouble for one roll and see if something better turns up next time.- 2: Double/take
- Being behind in the match in a gammonish position, this has the makings of a killer cube and maybe a close decision? Actually the Match score isn't a total scare for Black here. For starters, White doesn't get that many gammons, if Black closes out both checkers, there should be about 50% gammons, but that doesn't always happen, say 30% of White's wins are gammons. In Black's wins OTOH, there really are plenty gammons - White is already on the bar, and has 3 more blots. Black easily should get 50% G, maybe more. Moreover, 4-cube Gs put Black exactly out, making them more valuable. The raw TP with the above gammon rates is 32% just a little higher than for money. Black's recube to 8 will be hampered with White's TP for the match being a low 15%, and Black often getting too good anyway. Still it is easy to see Black winning > 30% from this position.
White should still cube with his many ways to win: White may roll the first ace - then he becomes big favourite having quite a bit of timing to roll the escaping 6. If noone rolls aces, Black is the one breaking, and even when Black rolls the first ace, she may still break. And of course here there is plenty of chance for White to go wrong on the T/P decision.
- 3: Double/drop
- As mentioned above, White's TP for the match is 15%, which looks to be about what he has here. Trying for a full count, I get White to be off in 2 in 246/1296 which is about 19%. Black needs 3 shakes in about 70% so White should win a little less than 14%.
- 4: No double/take
- With 3 checkers to get home, 2 of them partly blocked, Black would be very unlucky not to get her hit checker out in time to have a playable 4pt game. With an otherwise good position this must be monster take, and not yet a double, even if Black would prefer that her ace pt blot was elsewhere.
- 5: 13/8
- With Black having made the deeper point her position is a little better suited to an attacking game than a priming game. Thus there is a little less need for splitting, a little more risk. The made point alse makes slotting a bit more risky, so for money the donkey play 13/8 is not out of the question. AtS White is chasing gammons, and should consider slotting. Still, 41N is quite a way off for money, and must be more so against a made point - and I think it may be wrong even at score. 13/8 does bring an attacker safely in and makes Black play from a slightly unflexible position withouth being able to take initiative with a hit. With fear of thinking myself into sillyness I play 13/8, eee-aww!
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