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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 4/6/11
Posted By: Stein Kulseth In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/6/11 (Stick)
Date: Wednesday, 6 April 2011, at 8:40 p.m.
- 1: Double/drop
- 25pt match should be long enough to treat this like a money decision. I think White's position is now too compact for Black to take this almost 50 pip down. White has some blotting numbers, but most can be used constructively hitting Black off the ace, where she only gets the one chance to hit it. 5-1 straggler games aren't that much better than the pure anchor game.
- 2: 10/5 6/5
- The 5pt is the 5pt.
- 3: Double / drop
- Another anchor game with a big race deficit. Here Black both has the offense ready, and timing to hold everything, and White is stripped outside. As of now 11 rolls clear 10pt and 4 rolls blot. However, another 11 rolls force clears the 7 point immediately, and more rolls later - meaning that White is very likely to end up with the single 10 point in the outfield. Then there are 6 clearing rolls and 6 rolls blot. I would think that White is almost but not quite even money to leave a shot, usually on the 10pt with black having 15 or 16 rolls to hit - adding some for late-hit scenarios, maybe Black has 20% hits. Black obviously has next to nothing in racing equity - surely nowhere near 5%
- 4: Double/drop
- And yet an anchor game with little race equity. Deuce point games genereally doesnt have much anyway. I let this one go too. Black has two open points, but hasn't even started to dump on the ace.
- 5: 22/18(2) 8/4(2)
- And a real braintwister to round it off. Here the score may matter. Still a long way to go, but with a good lead, White will be a little wary about turning to 4 to have it come back on 8 in a position still having play - and gammons.
White will very much like to move up to the 18pt - not that far back in the race, and he may still get some shots from the bar point. Also if he hits something it is easier to convert if the back men aren't primed on the 3pt. However, moving up all 3 leaves an ugly 4th 4, and 22/18(2) 8/4(2) looks better - adding a board point and exploiting that Black is not well poised for immediate attack. The alternative is to attack 8/4(2) 6/2(2) (priming 13/9(2) 8/4(2 looks just hopeless), however it doesn't look right to me. The immediate shot may not be too serious, but it still hurts, and even when missed White looks to get too much to do in both trying to contain and attack Black's lone man while freeing the back checkers.
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