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51S-62

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 7 April 2011, at 4:23 a.m.

In Response To: Opening 51 discussion of 2nd roll misplays (Stick)


2O ' ' ' '5X '4X ' ' '5O

1X1X ' ' '5O '3O ' ' '4X

51S-62 at dmp


What money data do you have? All I can find right now is what is on the site [R S27] /5. I'm not so sure it's a smaller error than it is for money. Are you basing that on anything other than in general when trailing those types of plays become better for the trailer? If there is a difference it's uber tiny, if.

I readily admit that I don't understand some match scores as well as I could (if I made a point of studying them). But 𤾇's actual relationship with money has little to do with my point.

My main point is that this particular 62% cross-section of people (mis-)playing 51S-62S is biased in three ways:

(1) Not all GU OLM participants are Championship players (perhaps not even the majority, but it's safe to say not all).
(2) Most people (rightly or wrongly, at some specific score) are going to noticeably favor more contact when trailing in the match.
(3) Most people are going to (properly) favor running types of plays more at dmp than for money, and they were polled for money.

What David and I would like to know (in addition to other positions) is out of the pool of all Championship players today, what percentage would misplay 51S-62R at dmp. My guess was 25%, which David implied he roughly agreed with, but Miran thinks it's "higher" (without saying how much higher). If anyone else has offered an opinion, I haven't seen it.

You asked about money data for 51S-62. I have only [R S27]/5 and [R S36]~5, subject to the usual variance.

At dmp, I have only your rollout of d[R S20] /5. With the empirical money:dmp ratio of 20:9, that's roughly similar to a money margin of [R S45].

Nack

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