BGonline.org Forums

Some checker distribution issues

Posted By: Stein Kulseth
Date: Friday, 8 April 2011, at 7:05 a.m.

In Response To: Kleinman count investigation (Stein Kulseth)

I looked a little more into checker distribution for the perceived incontinuity in the 60pip races:

Pip A	Pip B	KC coeff	KC wins	Rollout	Diff %-pt	Pos
60	61	0,21	62,3%	65,0%	-2,7%	Position ID: 7W4XAADt7hYAAA
60	63	0,41	67,1%	68,0%	-0,9%	Position ID: bXcXAADt7hYAAA
60	65	0,67	71,8%	71,8%	0,0%	Position ID: bXdHAADt7hYAAA
60	67	0,98	76,5%	77,9%	-1,4%	Position ID: bbdLAADt7hYAAA
60	70	1,56	81,0%	82,2%	-1,2%	Position ID: bbuTAADt7hYAAA
60	75	2,76	87,8%	88,5%	-0,7%	Position ID: td2VAADt7hYAAA

Kleinman underestimates the shortest race, then gets closer to the rollout as the race increases, then again underestimates by a bit going from 60-65 to 60-67 after which it again gets closer.

This seems to be checker distribution issues, up to the 60-65 rollout both positions have one outside checker, whereas for 60-67 I pulled one more checker outside for the trailer adding 1 crossover. Now in general crossovers are overvalued - being behind in the race you are expected to have more crossovers, and if your position is otherwise flexible it will mostly sort itself out. Not at this length race though, the difference between having 1 and 2 outside *is* important as it means the difference between just getting both in, or getting the last in and one off, and this reflects in the rollout results. Redoing the 60-67 + positions with one outside checker for both I get:

Pip A	Pip B	KC coeff	KC wins	Rollout	Diff %-pt	Pos
60	61	0,21	62,3%	65,0%	-2,7%	Position ID: 7W4XAADt7hYAAA
60	63	0,41	67,1%	68,0%	-0,9%	Position ID: bXcXAADt7hYAAA
60	65	0,67	71,8%	71,8%	0,0%	Position ID: bXdHAADt7hYAAA
60	67	0,98	76,5%	76,3%	0,2%	Position ID: bbeHAADt7hYAAA
60	70	1,56	81,0%	81,5%	-0,5%	Position ID: dbsHAQDt7hYAAA
60	75	2,76	87,8%	87,1%	0,7%	Position ID: 2r0HAQDt7hYAAA

Similar things may appear in the other rollouts as well, this was not meant as an exhaustive study, just to get a ballpark feeling of whether the KC is still alive and well - it is.

Messages In This Thread

• Kleinman count investigation
  Stein Kulseth -- Thursday, 7 April 2011, at 8:11 p.m.
  • Kleinman count investigation
    Bob Koca -- Friday, 8 April 2011, at 12:42 a.m.
  • Kleinman count investigation
    Phil Simborg -- Friday, 8 April 2011, at 4:06 a.m.
    • +1
      Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 8 April 2011, at 7:22 a.m.
  • Some checker distribution issues
    Stein Kulseth -- Friday, 8 April 2011, at 7:05 a.m.
  • Kleinman count investigation
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 9 April 2011, at 5:38 p.m.
    • Kleinman count investigation
      Stein Kulseth -- Wednesday, 20 April 2011, at 7:56 a.m.
  • Kleinman count investigation
    rambiz -- Tuesday, 19 April 2011, at 10:01 p.m.
    • Kleinman count investigation
      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 20 April 2011, at 6:15 a.m.
      • Kleinman count investigation
        rambiz -- Wednesday, 20 April 2011, at 9:51 a.m.
        • TMG is online ^^
          rambiz -- Thursday, 21 April 2011, at 12:33 a.m.
        • Kleinman count investigation
          Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 21 April 2011, at 1:13 a.m.
          • Kleinman count investigation
            rambiz -- Thursday, 21 April 2011, at 5:19 a.m.