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What am I missing ?

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 8 April 2011, at 8:43 a.m.

In Response To: What am I missing ? (Christian Munk-Christensen)

The take point is not 25% but 30%.

It depends what Lucas meant. The raw take point is ~30% but the cube adjusted take point is accepted as ~25%.

At 3 away, 3 away one needs to double early and drop a lot, especially if Gs are looming ... I believe this is a big pass.

The gammon value on a 2 cube is the same as for money so I don't see the reason for the 'esp. if Gs are looming' statement.

Most early game blitzes (that are takes) fall around the 65% wins for the person doing the blitzing, give or take of course depending on the position. The gammons start in around 26% and fluctuate depending on the position. There's no need to guess here if you can draw on those figures to do decent estimates. The win percentage should be on the low side because when your opponent anchors he anchors on the 20pt or 21pt which would give him more wins than a deep anchor. Your opponent's forward structure is also okay with the valuable 9pt being made.

As for the gammons they should be (much) higher. You may only have 9 men in the zone but the guy on the bar and the two checkers on the high points left to attack are definitely in your favor. Your numbers are pretty well diversified. Also different from most early game blitzes is your opponent should win more gammons than in your typical early game blitz and backgammons that you lose of course are meaningless.

If this is a (big) pass I'll be surprised.

Stick

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