I wasn't actually faced with this particular decision; I was playing XG, and XG had to play the 62 from the bar. I was expecting bar/17 and was surprised that XG played bar/23 13/7. The XGR+ evaluation says that bar/17 is a whopper so I'm not going to bother with a rollout. It seems that bar/17 leaves Blue too vulnerable here, and White's blotty prime is not too much of a threat yet. Make White's bar point with her 11pt blot and then I think bar/17 is correct; the outfield blot is then much less vulnerable to getting attacked, and there's also more urgency to escape from behind White's solid four-prime.
        
 
           
 | | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 158 | Money session
Jacoby | pip: 143
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=-a-b-CBBBA--cDa---abbba--A:0:0:1:62:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 62 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | Bar/23 13/7 | eq: +0.272 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.24% (G:17.82% B:1.20%)
42.76% (G:13.93% B:0.47%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | Bar/17 | eq: +0.171 (-0.101) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.36% (G:15.65% B:1.13%)
44.64% (G:16.04% B:0.53%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21