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Rollout: My opponent just rolled 44...

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 10 April 2011, at 6:03 p.m.

In Response To: My opponent just rolled 44... (Timothy Chow)

I doubled here, although the rollout suggests that the double is borderline at best. The decision is very sensitive to the position of Blue's spare; move it back one pip and the double is clearer (see rollout of variant below). Though the take is easy, some people might drop, especially after rolling the anti-joker 44, in which case the double is mandatory as a practical matter.

Original position:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 111
Money session
Jacoby
pip: 106
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-bBBCBBB---------a-ccdb-B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:1:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 61.79% (G: 14.11% B: 0.78%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.21% (G: 8.72% B: 0.39%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 61.39% (G: 13.96% B: 0.70%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.61% (G: 8.55% B: 0.37%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.236
Double:+0.571
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.289
Double/Take:+0.273 (-0.016)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.711)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.277...+0.301)
Confidence Double: ± 0.020 (+0.253...+0.293)
Double Decision confidence: 90.3%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 30 minutes 52 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Variant:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 111
Money session
Jacoby
pip: 107
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-bBBBCBB---------a-ccdb-B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:1:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 64.76% (G: 15.44% B: 0.87%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.24% (G: 7.82% B: 0.35%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.43% (G: 15.14% B: 0.87%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.57% (G: 7.62% B: 0.32%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.295
Double:+0.738
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.391 (-0.081)
Double/Take:+0.472
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.528)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.380...+0.403)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+0.453...+0.492)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 32 minutes 49 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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