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(a) Getting pointed on is not the disaster it might otherwise be. Your racing chances are poor anyway, and in some cases you will be better off with a deeper anchor (assuming you're able to make one) rather than pinning your hopes on contact with the midpoint and outer board points.
(b) After anchoring on the 20pt, your immediate chances to hit are 0%. After standing pat (e.g., d = down, 13/9 8/7), your chances to hit are
- 65 (11)
63 (13)
62 (13)
54 (5)
53 (3)
51 (3)
43 (4)
41 (4)
112/1296 = 8.6%.
Blue has to win after hitting, but that is still a big number.
For money, you should anchor on the 20pt only to reduce the gammon percentage against you. Anchoring definitely wins less often -- it's probably a blunder.
In the right-hand variant (above), Blue opened with a roll of 64 instead of with 31. He is behind 6 fewer pips in the race, and hitting a shot won't be as strong. In that case, anchoring on the 20pt must be best even at the score.
I propose that the best reference position at this score (–3–c), one worth rolling out, is if Blue instead owns his 3pt (as shown below). He is 4 pips better off than in the left-hand diagram (above) but 2 pips worse off than in the right-hand diagram. Anchoring may not quite be right but it will be a relatively close call.
| 131 | |
|---|---|
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| 53P-33B-54S-66B-41 at –3–c (close call) | 150 |