 is Fafascore: 2 pip: 171 | ||||||||||||||||
 | 5 point match | |||||||||||||||
| pip: 136 score: 2  is eXtremeGammon | ||||||||||||||||
| XGID=aB-BaaC-B---cD--bc-dA-A---:0:0:1:00:2:2:0:5:10 | ||||||||||||||||
| on roll, cube action? | ||||||||||||||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 62.77% (G: 35.09% B: 1.94%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 37.23% (G: 8.58% B: 0.73%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 62.50% (G: 36.17% B: 2.82%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 37.50% (G: 8.79% B: 0.79%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.693 |
| Double: | +1.322 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.734 (-0.176) |
| Double/Take: | +0.910 |
| *Double/Drop: | +1.000 (+0.090) |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | |
| Rollout details | |
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply | |
| Confidence No Double: | ± 0.022 (+0.712...+0.757) |
| Confidence Double: | ± 0.031 (+0.879...+0.942) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 4 hours 52 minutes | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
What bothered me was not that I passed a 0.09 take, it was that I didn't understand it even after seeing the rollout. I thought it would be a very thin take for money, which would make a huge pass at score, because of the 30% raw take point and the fact that the opp's gammons are almost killed.
Your comments have helped me to understand the position better. As for the numbers, here is how I try to make sense of them.
With a gammon rate of 55%, the equity of winning a doubled game is 75% + 55% % 25% ~ 89%. So my cubeless take point is 29/64 ~ 45%. Assume a standard 60% cube efficiency (I don't see any reason to assume more), that translates into the me cashing at 85% instead of 75% for a perfect recube. So my cubeful take point is 85% * 45% ~ 38%.
Well, the rollout says that at 37.2% I should still take. Can I assume that the difference comes for my "too good" equity, the rare games where I shoot straight from not good enough to too good ? I have no idea how to estimate that one. The other possibility, of course, is that my 60% figure for the "standard" cube efficiency is on the low side.