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Match to 5, 3-4 backgame, juicy shot, cube action?

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Tuesday, 12 April 2011, at 7:24 p.m.

In Response To: Match to 5, 3-4 backgame, juicy shot, cube action? (ah_clem)

I haven't rolled this one out, or even looked at analysis, so what follows isn't "the answer", it's just what I had to say:

20 numbers hit the blot. That gives us about a 55% chance to hit, and it sure looks like we win all of them, plus a fair number of gammons. So that's basically a 55% chance to win, with lots and lots of market losers and some gammon chances. Is this enough?

Lets try some math:

Assume that we win 55% of games and that slightly more than half of those are gammons. Say, 25% single wins & 30% gammon wins. Also assume that when we don't hit we lose a single game (this is not entirely correct - we lose some gammons and win some games, so call it a wash for simplicity. Or he might just cube us out which gives the same result. OTOH, If we miss, he doubles and we take, the calculation gets too complicated so I'm just going to ignore that possibility.)

Let's add up the match equity:

Cube centered
Win single -> score 1-1 -> equity == .5 * .25 == .125
Win gammon -> score 2-1 -> equity == .57 * .3 == .171
Lose single -> score 0-2 -> equity == .35 * .45 == .1575
Equity with cube centered == .4535

White owns cube
Win single -> score 2-1 -> equity == .57 * .25 == .1425
Win gammon -> score 4-1 -> equity == .81 * .3 == .243
lose single -> score 0-3 -> equity == .26 * .45 == .117
Equity with cube centered == .5025

White passes -> score 1-1 -> equity == .5

So the math says double, but the math is only as good as the assumptions. I'm not entirely sure about neglecting our gammon losses, so take all this with a grain of salt. My gut says hold. I'm going to go with the math, but I'm far from certain.

And the take seems pretty clear.

Messages In This Thread

• Match to 5, 3-4 backgame, juicy shot, cube action?
  ah_clem -- Tuesday, 12 April 2011, at 1:37 p.m.
  • Match to 5, 3-4 backgame, juicy shot, cube action?
    Turz -- Tuesday, 12 April 2011, at 3:45 p.m.
  • Match to 5, 3-4 backgame, juicy shot, cube action?
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 12 April 2011, at 6:23 p.m.
    • Some bot content
      Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 13 April 2011, at 3:00 p.m.
      • Some bot content
        Stick -- Wednesday, 13 April 2011, at 3:55 p.m.
        • Some bot content
          Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 13 April 2011, at 5:14 p.m.
          • Some bot content
            Stick -- Wednesday, 13 April 2011, at 6:22 p.m.
            • Some bot content
              Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 13 April 2011, at 9:27 p.m.
      • Some RO content
        neilkaz -- Wednesday, 13 April 2011, at 7:48 p.m.
        • RO of variant
          Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 14 April 2011, at 5:04 p.m.
          • RO of variant
            neilkaz -- Thursday, 14 April 2011, at 6:10 p.m.
        • Some RO content
          ah_clem -- Thursday, 14 April 2011, at 6:11 p.m.
  • Match to 5, 3-4 backgame, juicy shot, cube action?
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 12 April 2011, at 6:36 p.m.
  • Match to 5, 3-4 backgame, juicy shot, cube action?
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 12 April 2011, at 6:56 p.m.
  • Match to 5, 3-4 backgame, juicy shot, cube action?
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 12 April 2011, at 7:24 p.m.
    • Match to 5, 3-4 backgame, juicy shot, cube action?
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 14 April 2011, at 6:11 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Chuck Bower -- Friday, 15 April 2011, at 10:21 p.m.