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Daily Quiz 4/12/11

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 12 April 2011, at 11:03 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/12/11 (Stick)

1. Safe/bold criteria point to a bold play. Here I think that means hitting. The hitting candidates seem to be 5/3*/1, 5/3*(2), 6/3* + find an ace. I like 6/3* best since it keeps our 5pt, despite leaving two blots. After that, 24/23 seems like the natural ace.

2. I see three candidates: the safe 8/7 8/6, the structural 7/5 6/5, and the aggressive 6/3*. Normally, being ahead in the race, we'd like to play safe, and not get another checker sent back, but we have the stronger board and White has two blots, plus we still have the barpoint anchor to clear so playing safe isn't too likely to get us home free without ever having to leave a shot. The 5pt gives us a nice asset but I think it's more urgent to hit now while we have the chance since we may not get another good opportunity. 6/3*.

3. It's either 12/7 or 7/4 6/4. Normally it's best not to leave a shot in a mutual holding game so 12/7 is the first candidate. However, because we're ahead in the pip count, there's a good chance that if we play 12/7 then White will just calmly strengthen her board and then we'll be forced to play something awkward next roll. I think we're better off paying now while White has a homeboard blot and we can put one of those spares on the 6pt to good use. 7/4 6/4.

4. We have reasonable gammon chances so the choice seems to be between 1/off(4) and 4/3*/2 1/off(2). I think 1/off(4) should have a higher probability of saving us one full roll, whereas 4/3*/2 1/off(2) gives us some chances of saving more than one roll (if our opponent dances). Tough call but I'll go with 1/off(4). I'm guessing that if White's outfield checker is brought home then 4/3*/2 1/off(2) will be relatively more attractive because we'll "need" to save more than one roll.

5. I'm just going to chicken out with 6/5/3 against White's five-point board. I'd be curious to see if the decision is sensitive to where our anchor is in White's board.

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