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Extreme backgame - ROLLOUT

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Wednesday, 13 April 2011, at 2:53 p.m.

In Response To: Extreme backgame (ah_clem)

For what it's worth, here's a 2-ply gnubg rollout. You can believe it or not.

I'm inclined to think that the result is correct (ND/T), but don't necessarily believe it's as close as the rollout says (.02). 2-ply analysis flagged this as a double (.074 error to hold) , which is why it came up on my radar screen. 0-ply rollout says ND/T (.054 error to cube). I don't think gnu understand this position very well, but in fairness neither do I.

Moving forward, I'm going to continue to hold positions like this - lots of play still to come, and no obvious market losers say HOLD to me.

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 2, you 0 (match to 5 points)

Move number 3: you on roll, cube decision?

gnubg	228
townsend	163
Position ID: mIMB2DbguZWAEQ Match ID: cAmgACAAAAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.469	(Money: +0.388)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.716
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.284
3.	Double, take	+0.696	-0.020
Proper cube action:		No double, take (6.7%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.597 0.271 0.019 - 0.403 0.081 0.014 +0.469 +0.716 Standard error 0.003 0.003 0.002 - 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.010 0.022 Player gnubg owns 2-cube 0.588 0.266 0.018 - 0.412 0.092 0.015 +0.874 +0.696 Standard error 0.004 0.004 0.002 - 0.004 0.004 0.002 0.029 0.032
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 881799873 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Extreme backgame
  ah_clem -- Monday, 11 April 2011, at 1:19 p.m.
  • Extreme backgame
    Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 11 April 2011, at 3:06 p.m.
  • Extreme backgame
    Lucas Bauer -- Monday, 11 April 2011, at 3:09 p.m.
  • Extreme backgame
    neilkaz -- Monday, 11 April 2011, at 3:57 p.m.
    • What if...
      Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 12 April 2011, at 5:07 p.m.
  • Extreme backgame - ROLLOUT
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 13 April 2011, at 2:53 p.m.