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What am I missing ?

Posted By: Fabrice Liardet
Date: Thursday, 14 April 2011, at 8:57 a.m.

In Response To: What am I missing ? (Matt Cohn-Geier)

I'm not exactly an expert on this but plugging these numbers into XG's cube information (for R-K) comes up with a cubeless take point of 41.95% and a live cube take point of 34.60%, I assume because of affects of your gammon & BG wins and because of rounding. I always figured cube efficiency was worth about 70% normally which would give you a take point of 36.8%.

Maybe John O'Hagan would have a more enlightening answer but number crunching doesn't interest me so much.

What is clear to me is that the difference does NOT come from your "too good" equity, which is so minimal that approximating it at 0 is very reasonable.

Thank you, that is all I needed to know. I have always approximated the too good equity at 0 but I was wondering whether I was wrong about it.

On a related note, at those scores I have long suspected the bots to count the doublee's gammons into account in their evaluations (and hence to take too deeply). But I couldn't find clear instances of it, so maybe I was wrong.

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