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Cube action at -5-5

Posted By: Mr Majestyk
Date: Thursday, 14 April 2011, at 11:56 a.m.

In Response To: Cube action at -5-5 (Lucas Bauer)

I estimate white is 2 to 3 Gs shy of a take.

White's chances vary depending on where he anchors. On the 22-pt I figure 22%. On the ace, 15% and deuce 20%. If I were in a generous mood I would say an average of 20%. In this sense I see white's chances panning out as follows.

16 rolls complete a 5 prime. I see white winning 3.2 of these (16*20%). 12 rolls worth of gammon threat with white winning 2.4 of these. Of the remaining 8 rolls blue has a slender lead with white winning 3.5 of these giving him 9.1/36 or 25.27%.

On the recube, I estimate 1/6 of his overall winning chances, giving him 29.48%. White needs 34% to take. Looks like 2 gammoms too many.

Majestyk

Messages In This Thread

• Cube action at -5-5
  neilkaz -- Wednesday, 13 April 2011, at 9:31 p.m.
  • Cube action at -5-5
    Lucas Bauer -- Wednesday, 13 April 2011, at 11:12 p.m.
    • Cube action at -5-5
      Mr Majestyk -- Thursday, 14 April 2011, at 11:56 a.m.
  • Cube action at -5-5
    Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 13 April 2011, at 11:42 p.m.
    • Cube action at -5-5
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 13 April 2011, at 11:59 p.m.
      • Cube action at -5-5
        Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 14 April 2011, at 4:55 p.m.
    • Cube action at -5-5
      Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 14 April 2011, at 3:02 p.m.
  • Cube action at -5-5
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 14 April 2011, at 12:06 a.m.
  • Cube action at -5-5
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Thursday, 14 April 2011, at 12:51 a.m.
  • Cube action at -5-5
    ah_clem -- Thursday, 14 April 2011, at 3:01 p.m.