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What am I missing ?

Posted By: Maik Stiebler
Date: Thursday, 14 April 2011, at 5:10 p.m.

In Response To: What am I missing ? (Fabrice Liardet)

Well, if we really had had a 50% gammon rate ourselves, as I assumed because of my misreading of the XG output, the cubeless TP in my sense of the word would have given a nice upper limit on the true take point.

But yes, if we want to use

Take point = Naïve Take point − [Naïve Take point] × [Opponent’s Take point on the coming redouble] × [Recube Efficiency],

I completely agree now we are better off understanding "naive take point" as "cubeless, own-gammonless take point" instead of just "cubeless take point", and then accounting for our own gammons when calculating "Opponent’s Take point on the coming redouble", which of course doesn't make a difference here. I was not well aware of this until now; thanks for the eye opener.

But now I am wondering how XG calculates the numbers Matt was quoting; the 41.95% dead cube TP does seem to be cubeless, but with own gammons, and 34.6% live cube TP is 82% of that, which looks suspiciously like (1 - opponent's tp * recube efficiency). How can that be correct?

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