I forgot to post the rollout, that's where it is! Hate that these plays seem to be so close that 1296 games isn't statistical significance but I'll post the rollout anyway for now. When I saw everyone initially voting for the hit I was a bit surprised. I almost reflexively anchored up. Too many shots came to mind, bold v. safe criteria came to mind. I have made my five point and if you get another man sent back the best you can hope for is a backgame? It's also true that if you don't hit I'm more likely to close in on an efficient cube downt the road, whereas if you do hit a lot of my cubes in the next few sequences will be rather inefficient I imagine in comparison.
Hitting also makes my sixes play kind of iffy from the bar, depending on what the 6 is coupled with. Normally I continue bar/X/X with the six, but you may get lucky and I might hit the most common 17-1 shot in the game, 6-2 from the bar! This rollout is also rolled out for money, I don't know if the minor deficit in the match score would make the hitting play any more appealing for you.
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| Board image courtesy of GO-Figure | |
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| 1 | R | 24/22 13/8 | -0.600 | |
| 0.2% 6.9% 33.8% 66.2% 14.9% 0.6% | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.407 ±0.011. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 40823 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. | ||||
| 2 | R | 13/8 6/4* | -0.609 (-0.009) | |
| 0.3% 8.9% 36.2% 63.8% 21.9% 2.1% | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.423 ±0.014. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 32341 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. | ||||