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Match to 5, 3-4 backgame, juicy shot, cube action?

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Thursday, 14 April 2011, at 6:11 p.m.

In Response To: Match to 5, 3-4 backgame, juicy shot, cube action? (ah_clem)

That gives us about a 55% chance to hit, and it sure looks like we win all of them

This can't be right. No one ever throws 61? I would say winning 80% of the hits is reasonable. But you still retain substantial winning chances if you miss, unless you somehow misevaluate this as being a cash.

slightly more than half of those are gammons.

This also seems very high since you are a clear underdog to win a G even after an optimal hit/fan sequence.

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