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Cube Action

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 15 April 2011, at 4:06 p.m.

In Response To: Cube Action (seth)

I don't think we can dismiss this problem as 'we can always double later on'. The problem usually with waiting to double later on is of course market loss. There is also a score involved here, do you know how the score affects this decision? It's -6 -6 and we're thinking about recubing.

• Double/Pass would be -6 -4 or 36% ME
• Double/Take/Lose would be -6 -2 or 20% ME
• Double/Take/Win would be -2 -6 or 80% ME

We are risking 16% (36-20) to gain 44 (80-36). Risk/(risk+gain) = 16/(16+44) or 16/60 = ~26.5% as our raw take point. This is of course slightly higher than money. Next we look at the gammons. This position is nice because both players obviously have the same gammon value and there shouldn't be many more gammons for the doubler than the taker, an easy adjustment. We also know that since there's so much overage the gammon value will be lower than usual. If we guesstimate that the person cubing wins 2% more gammons with a gv of ~.35 then for the sake of simplicity I would up the raw take point of 26.5% to the gammon adjust take point of 27.5%.

The opponent still gets decent use out of the cube vig here. Our 8 cube take point hovers around 20% so I'd take off the standard percent for recube vig and lower our take point to ~24%.

So our opponent has an adjusted take point of 24%, does he win that much here? I think so. We're both on the bar and while we're a favorite to enter long before our opponent we have all our checkers so far away for when the opponent finally does throw an ace and threatens to escape. AS the potential doubler I'm a little annoyed that my entering 42 and 52 don't play well but that is of course a small factor.

What about volatility? It's certainly there. If we enter, even with one of our ugly numbers, and our opponent fans I think we've lost our market, sometimes by a lot depending on our entering number. I think now is the time to cube as I can't see our opponent winning a lot more than 24% to begin with and I see a fair amount of market losing sequences.

Double/Take

Stick

Messages In This Thread

• Cube Action
  Dmitriy Obukhov -- Thursday, 14 April 2011, at 3:42 a.m.
  • Cube Action
    seth -- Friday, 15 April 2011, at 2:42 p.m.
    • Cube Action
      Stick -- Friday, 15 April 2011, at 4:06 p.m.
  • Cube Action
    Seth -- Friday, 15 April 2011, at 9:54 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 17 April 2011, at 5:29 p.m.